🇺🇸 TSMC Brings $100 Billion

Good afternoon! The moon just got a new visitor, and this one actually stuck the landing. Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost lander successfully touched down on the lunar surface, making it the first private spacecraft to do so without toppling over. The Texas-based startup secured the $101 million NASA contract as part of the agency’s push to ignite a private-sector lunar economy. Now, Blue Ghost will spend the next two weeks drilling into the moon’s surface, vacuuming up dust, and testing new tech before shutting down as lunar night sets in.

It’s just the beginning of a commercial space race, with two more landers scheduled to arrive soon, including one from Intuitive Machines later this week. While private companies are making moon landings look easy, history says otherwise—Intuitive’s last lander broke a leg, and Japan’s ispace crashed its first attempt in 2023.

MARKETS

• Stocks sank Monday as Trump confirmed tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect within hours, sending the S&P 500 down 1.8% and the Nasdaq sliding 2.6%. Hopes for a last-minute deal were dashed, and the Dow tumbled nearly 650 points.

• Markets once shrugged off trade war fears, but with tariffs now reality, post-election gains have vanished. Even Warren Buffett warned tariffs could worsen inflation—something Wall Street seems to agree with as the sell-off accelerates.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Allegro MicroSystems soared 14.9% after Bloomberg reported that the chipmaker has attracted takeover interest from ON Semiconductor. ( $ALGM )

• SanDisk climbed 7.4% after Morgan Stanley initiated coverage with an overweight rating, forecasting significant upside once cyclical drivers reverse. ( $SNDK )

• Capri Holdings gained 3.87% after Bloomberg reported that Prada is nearing a deal to acquire Versace from Capri for $1.6 billion. ( $CPRI )

• AppLovin rose 3.66% after announcing that $500 million in shares will be immediately available for repurchase. ( $APP )

What’s down 📉

• Canopy Growth plunged 11.1% to an all-time low as the cannabis company announced a $200 million share sale to raise funds. ( $CGC )

• Li Auto tumbled 10.93% after reporting lackluster vehicle deliveries, sending Chinese EV stocks lower. ( $LI )

• Nvidia sank 8.69% following reports that Chinese buyers are circumventing U.S. export controls to acquire the company’s Blackwell chips. ( $NVDA )

• Dell Technologies dropped 7.0% after missing Q4 revenue expectations despite posting better-than-expected earnings. ( $DELL )

• ON Semiconductor fell 4.55% after reports that it may be considering acquiring Allegro MicroSystems. ( $ON )

• Aurora Innovation declined 4.54%, reversing earlier gains from a Morgan Stanley overweight rating. ( $AUR )

• Coinbase dropped 4.58% as crypto stocks retreated following an initial surge on news of a U.S. strategic crypto reserve. ( $COIN )

• Intel lost 4.17% after an early rally faded despite reports that Nvidia and Broadcom are testing Intel’s chip manufacturing capabilities. ( $INTC )

TECH
TSMC Unveils $100 Billion in New US Investment

TSMC is making a power move in the chip wars, announcing a $100 billion investment to expand its US footprint—bringing its total stateside spending to a jaw-dropping $165 billion. With President Trump at his side, TSMC CEO C.C. Wei unveiled plans to build five new chip plants in Arizona, turning the desert into a silicon stronghold.

A Silicon Superpower in the Making

The new facilities—three wafer fabs and two advanced packaging sites—will cement TSMC’s role as the undisputed AI chip king, supplying Nvidia, Apple, and AMD while making the US a bigger player in the semiconductor race. Trump wasted no time spinning it as a win for his administration, touting tariffs over taxpayer-funded subsidies: “By doing it here, there’s no tariffs.”

That’s a direct shot at Biden’s CHIPS Act, which handed TSMC $6.6 billion in grants to boost domestic chipmaking. But Trump’s approach? Less carrot, more stick. He’s threatened up to 50% tariffs on foreign-made chips, essentially strong-arming companies into setting up shop in the US.

Tech Cold War Just Got Hotter

This isn’t just about economics—it’s a geopolitical chess match. With US-China tensions at an all-time high, America is desperate to control its own semiconductor supply, and TSMC’s expansion is a critical piece of the puzzle. But here’s the twist: Taiwan still has to approve the investment. The island’s government isn’t eager to lose its chokehold on advanced chip production, meaning this deal isn’t a slam dunk just yet.

Intel’s Nightmare Scenario? The timing couldn’t be worse for Intel, which is already losing ground. Rumors are swirling that TSMC could take over Intel’s US factories at Trump’s request, a move that would further solidify TSMC’s dominance and leave Intel scrambling for relevance.

The takeaway? TSMC just went all-in on America—and whether it’s tariffs, subsidies, or sheer necessity, the US is locking down its chip supply. The AI arms race is only getting started, and TSMC just made sure it's calling the shots.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 🥑 Chipotle won’t raise prices despite tariff costs: Chipotle announced it will absorb higher costs from President Trump’s tariffs rather than passing them on to customers. The company sources roughly half of its avocados from Mexico ($CMG).

• 🎬 Hulu Oscars livestream cuts off before Best Picture award: Hulu’s livestream of the 97th Academy Awards abruptly ended for some users before the Best Picture winner was announced. The outage frustrated viewers, and Hulu has yet to provide an official explanation ($DIS).

• ✈️ American Airlines tests free Wi-Fi on select flights: American Airlines will trial complimentary inflight Wi-Fi on certain routes, joining Delta and United in offering free connectivity to passengers. The move reflects increasing competition among carriers ($AAL).

• 🔧 Microsoft outage disrupts Xbox and Outlook services: Microsoft experienced a major outage on Saturday, impacting Xbox, Outlook, and other Microsoft 365 platforms, with over 37,000 reported issues. Services have since been restored ($MSFT).

• 💊 AbbVie enters obesity drug market with $2.2B licensing deal: AbbVie has secured rights to Gubra’s experimental weight-loss drug, GUBamy, with an upfront payment of $350 million and up to $1.875 billion in milestone payments. The drug, currently in Phase 1 trials, could compete with industry leaders Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in a market projected to reach $130 billion by 2030 ($ABBV).

• 🛒 Kroger CEO resigns after internal ethics investigation: Rodney McMullen stepped down as chairman and CEO of Kroger following an internal probe into his personal conduct, which the company said was unrelated to business operations. Board member Ronald Sargent will serve as interim CEO while Kroger searches for a permanent replacement ($KR).

• 🚨 Singapore probes Nvidia-linked firms for export violations: Authorities in Singapore are investigating Dell and Super Micro Computer over potential violations of U.S. export restrictions, suspecting that servers containing Nvidia’s Blackwell GPUs were shipped to China. The news sent Dell shares down nearly 7% and Super Micro plummeting 13% ($SMCI).

• 📱 Honor invests $10B in AI and strengthens Google partnership: Chinese smartphone maker Honor committed $10B to AI development over five years and expanded its collaboration with Google to enhance Android updates and AI-powered features. The company is also planning global expansion ($GOOGL).

CRYPTO
Crypto Rally Sizzles on National Reserve Skepticism

Donald Trump’s latest crypto moonshot had traders foaming at the mouth—for about five minutes. On Sunday, he announced a U.S. Crypto Strategic Reserve, stocked with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a trio of altcoins that raised some serious eyebrows: Solana, XRP, and Cardano. The market initially loved it—Bitcoin surged 10% to $95K. But by Monday, that excitement had turned into a full-blown sell-off, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP tanking by double digits as skepticism set in.

From Crypto Savior to Market Slayer

Trump’s pitch? The reserve would “elevate this critical industry” after years of “corrupt attacks” by the Biden administration. But the moment he tacked on Solana, XRP, and Cardano, people started asking: Why these?

Bitcoin? Sure. Ethereum? Makes sense. But XRP is still dealing with SEC drama, Solana has meme-coin baggage, and Cardano… well, Cardano exists. Even Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong questioned the move, arguing a Bitcoin-only reserve would’ve been “simpler and clearer.”

Adding to the chaos, Trump’s crypto czar, David Sacks, suddenly announced he had dumped all his crypto holdings before taking office—which wasn’t a shady sell-off but rather a required divestment. Still, not exactly the vote of confidence crypto traders wanted.

Wait… How Is This Supposed to Work?

Another big question: How does a U.S. Crypto Reserve even function? The government already holds $18 billion in confiscated Bitcoin from cybercrime busts, so maybe that’s part of the plan? Or maybe they just buy crypto with taxpayer dollars (good luck selling that to Congress). So far, zero details have been given, and markets hate uncertainty almost as much as they hate tariffs—which brings us to the next problem.

The tariff wars didn’t help. On Monday, Trump doubled down on his 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, effectively kicking the crypto market (and tech stocks) while they were already down. Bitcoin fell 9%, Ethereum 16%, and XRP 18% as investors braced for broader economic turbulence.

What Now? The White House Crypto Summit is set for Friday, where Trump and his team will (theoretically) explain how this reserve will actually work. Until then, crypto traders are treating this more like a meme pump than a policy shift—because if there’s one thing markets hate more than bad news, it’s uncertainty and an announcement that makes no sense.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

The Mobile World Congress kicked off today, giving tech giants a platform to flex their latest gadgets. The annual event tends to spark buzz-driven stock moves, so keep an eye on how the market reacts to the latest smartphone and laptop reveals over the next few days.

No major economic reports are on deck for tomorrow, but there’s plenty of policy action to watch. Tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China officially take effect unless there’s a last-minute pivot, and President Trump is set to address the nation in a speech that’s definitely not a State of the Union. Meanwhile, earnings season rolls on with reports from CrowdStrike ($CRWD), Ross Stores ($ROST), AutoZone ($AZO), and Box ($BOX).

Before Market Open:

• Target has been on the ropes for the past year, struggling with inflation-weary customers and widespread price cuts. But don’t count it out just yet—a powerful brand, growing e-commerce revenue, and its Circle+ subscription service could set the stage for a turnaround. Add in a hefty dividend that rewards patience, and Target might just be gearing up for a comeback—as long as management doesn’t throw another curveball. Consensus: $2.65 EPS, $30.28 billion in revenue. ( $TGT )

• Best Buy, on the other hand, is hanging on, but the road ahead looks rough. While shares have inched higher, the retailer faces bigger headwinds than its big-box peers. As household budgets tighten, big-ticket electronics are the first to go, and Best Buy is still losing ground to e-commerce rivals. A new AI-driven upgrade cycle could be on the horizon, but until then, expect some turbulence. Consensus: $2.42 EPS, $13.69 billion in revenue. ( $BBY )

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🌍 China’s Mixue Ice Cream Becomes World’s Largest Food Chain: Mixue Ice Cream and Tea, with 45,000 locations, has overtaken McDonald’s and Starbucks. The company’s $444 million IPO in Hong Kong saw shares jump over 40%. Its ultra-cheap menu has fueled rapid expansion, particularly in China and Australia.

• ⛪ Pope Francis Off Ventilator Amid Succession Speculation: Pope Francis has been removed from mechanical ventilation and is reportedly stable. Betting markets have surged with speculation about a new pope in 2025. Religious groups have criticized the wagers, calling them disrespectful.

• 🎬 Anora Wins Big at the Academy Awards: Anora dominated the Oscars, winning Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, Best Editing, and Best Original Screenplay. Despite its critical success, the indie film grossed just $15.6 million domestically, reflecting the struggle of award-winning films at the box office. Director Sean Baker used his speech to urge Hollywood to protect movie theaters as streaming takes over.

• 🇺🇦 U.S.-Ukraine Economic Deal Falls Apart: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a U.S.-Ukraine economic agreement is “impossible” without a peace deal. President Zelensky walked away from negotiations after a tense meeting with Trump, derailing plans for a mineral rights agreement. Lawmakers say the failed deal reflects deep divisions over how to approach Ukraine’s future.

• ⚾ ESPN Walks Away from MLB Broadcast Deal: ESPN has opted out of the final three years of its $550 million annual contract with Major League Baseball, citing declining viewership. Commissioner Rob Manfred is scrambling to secure new broadcast partners while pushing for a league-controlled streaming model. Small-market teams struggling with revenue gaps may benefit, but powerhouse franchises like the Yankees and Dodgers are skeptical of sharing profits.

• 🇺🇦 Freeze On New Weapons Sales to Ukraine: The Trump administration has halted new weapons financing for Ukraine and is considering pausing shipments from U.S. stockpiles. This decision follows a tense White House meeting between Trump and Zelensky, raising fears that the U.S. is distancing itself from European allies. Analysts warn that without U.S. military aid, Ukraine could face a gradual depletion of its defense capabilities.

• 🇰🇵 Western Tourists Return to North Korea: For the first time since the pandemic, North Korea has reopened to Western visitors, drawing adventure-seekers eager to check the hermit kingdom off their lists. Tourists explored propaganda-filled schools, visited war museums, and bought Kim Jong Un-approved cigarettes. While visitors described the experience as surreal, strict monitoring ensured no one stepped out of line.

• 🔒 U.S. Halts Cyber Operations Against Russia: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered an end to offensive cyber operations targeting Russia. The abrupt shift in strategy has raised concerns about potential security risks. Officials have not provided details on why the decision was made.

• 🏛️ Trump Set to Address Congress in Unofficial ‘State of the Union’: Trump will deliver a major speech to Congress on Tuesday, though it won’t be an official State of the Union. Analysts expect him to highlight his early policy moves, including tariffs and deregulation. His address comes as new trade restrictions take effect the same day.

RESOURCES
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