🥷🏻 Google’s Ad Empire Under Attack

Good afternoon! Mark Zuckerberg had a rough second day in court, admitting during the FTC’s antitrust trial that Facebook scooped up Instagram because… it had a better camera. Back in 2012, Zuck weighed building a similar feature but decided Instagram had the edge—so they bought it for $1 billion. The FTC says that’s Exhibit A in how Meta kills competition by acquiring it.

The FTC is using those old emails—and Meta’s $19 billion WhatsApp deal—as ammo in its claim that Zuck built a monopoly by buying rivals before they got too big. Meta’s defense? It’s just one player in a competitive market dominated by TikTok, YouTube, and others.

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MARKETS

• Markets stumbled into the weekend with a mixed finish and plenty of bruises. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.13% gain, but it wasn’t enough to salvage the week, which ended lower thanks to ongoing tariff fears. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq slipped just before the bell, and the Dow lost more than 500 points as volatility remained the name of the game.

• Adding fuel to the fire, President Trump went on the offensive—again—blasting Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not slashing rates fast enough. While the European Central Bank made its seventh cut in eight meetings, Powell held his ground, leaving investors to wonder how far tariffs and Twitter tantrums will sway the Fed’s next move.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Hertz continued its rally, rising 44.31% after Pershing Square increased its stake to nearly 20%. ($HTZ)

• Chagee soared 15.86% after the Chinese tea chain made its debut on the Nasdaq. ($CHA)

• Eli Lilly jumped 14.30% after its daily obesity pill posted strong results in a late-stage trial. ($LLY)

• Trump Media & Technology Group surged 11.65% after requesting the SEC investigate a hedge fund shorting its stock. ($DJT)

• Fidelity National Information Services popped 8.65% after announcing the $24.25B sale of Worldpay to Global Payments and a PE firm. ($FIS)

• D.R. Horton rose 3.16% despite weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings, as investors remained bullish on housing. ($DHI)

What’s down 📉

• UnitedHealth dropped 22.38% after posting a Q1 miss and slashing full-year guidance. ($UNH)

• Global Payments plunged 17.43% after announcing it will acquire Worldpay in a $24.25 billion deal. ($GPN)

• Alcoa slid 6.98% after reporting a revenue miss and noting $20M in Q1 tariff-related costs. ($AA)

• Alphabet fell 1.42% after a judge ruled that Google illegally monopolized the ad tech market. ($GOOGL)

• Nvidia declined 2.87% as chipmaker losses mounted on China export charges. ($NVDA)

COURTS
Google Illegally Monopolized Ad Tech Markets, Judge Says

Another day, another antitrust smackdown for Google. A federal judge ruled Thursday that the tech giant illegally monopolized the online ad tech market, calling out its dominance in both ad exchanges and publisher ad servers. The decision could shake up a core piece of Google’s business—and set the stage for a possible breakup.

The ruling marks the second time in under a year that Google’s been labeled an illegal monopolist. In this case, Judge Leonie Brinkema said Google “willfully” crushed competition by forcing publishers into its ecosystem and stacking the ad deck in its favor. Alphabet’s stock slipped 1.4% after the news.

Two Hats, Too Much Power

For years, Google has played the middleman between advertisers and publishers—running the software for both buying and selling ads. That combo, according to the court, created a “self-reinforcing feedback loop” that kept customers locked in while sidelining rivals. The judge also said Google’s tactics harmed the entire open web by limiting competition and consumer choice.

While the Justice Department wanted to challenge Google’s acquisitions of DoubleClick and Admeld, the court didn’t go that far. Still, the judge ruled that those deals helped solidify Google's grip on the market. The DOJ now heads into a remedies trial with its sights set on breaking off parts of Google’s $31 billion ad tech arm.

What's Next?

Google says it’ll appeal and insists publishers have plenty of alternatives. But with another monopoly ruling under its belt, the DOJ could gain momentum in other Big Tech cases. If regulators succeed in forcing Google to spin off key ad tools, it could reset the digital ad landscape—and finally loosen the company’s decade-long chokehold on web advertising.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 📺 Netflix beats expectations, shifts focus to revenue: Netflix topped Wall Street estimates with Q1 revenue of $10.54 billion and EPS of $6.61, growing revenue 13% year over year. It’s the first quarter the company didn’t report subscriber numbers, pivoting focus toward ad growth and revenue. Despite market volatility, Netflix reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance and said it's seen no material change in business outlook ($NFLX)..

• 🏥 UnitedHealth slashes forecast as Medicare costs spike: UnitedHealth warned of higher-than-expected medical costs in its Medicare Advantage plans, cutting its profit forecast and triggering a 22% stock drop. Analysts called it a warning for other insurers, with CVS down 2%, Elevance down 1%, and Humana off 5%. UnitedHealth said the cost surge was “very unusual” and tied to outpatient care utilization ($UNH, $CVS, $ELV, $HUM).

• 💊 Eli Lilly obesity pill hits late-stage trial goals: Eli Lilly’s oral GLP-1 pill, orforglipron, met primary goals in a key diabetes trial, driving shares up 14%. The pill helped patients lose nearly 8% of their weight and showed safety on par with popular injections. The company expects to file for regulatory approval for obesity by year-end and for diabetes in 2026 ($LLY).

• 🚗 Uber eyes Turkish expansion with Trendyol Go talks: Uber is reportedly in talks to acquire Trendyol Go, the delivery arm of one of Turkey’s largest e-commerce platforms. A deal would expand Uber’s global food delivery footprint after its previous acquisitions of Postmates and Drizly. Talks are ongoing, and no final agreement has been reached yet ($UBER).

• 🤖 OpenAI reveals new models, explores $3B buyout: OpenAI launched its o3 and o4-mini models, which can reason using both text and images. The company is also considering acquiring AI coding startup Windsurf for $3 billion, its largest deal to date. Additionally, it may partner with Oracle and SoftBank on a massive AI infrastructure project in the U.K. ($ORCL, $MSFT).

• ⚖️ Tesla faces revived whistleblower lawsuit: A U.S. appeals court reinstated a defamation lawsuit against Tesla from former employee Cristina Balan. She alleges she was fired for raising safety concerns, and the revived case could now proceed to trial ($TSLA).

• 💳 Global Payments makes $24.25B Worldpay acquisition: Global Payments is buying Worldpay from Fidelity National Information Services and GTCR for $24.25 billion. It will also sell its issuer solutions business back to FIS for $13.5 billion, becoming a pure-play merchant solutions firm ($GPN, $FIS).

• 🏦 Santander overtakes UBS as Europe’s top bank: UBS lost its crown as Europe’s most valuable bank to Banco Santander amid sliding shares and macro headwinds. Santander is now up nearly 35% year-to-date, reaching a $103.8 billion market cap, while UBS has fallen 17.2% ($UBS, $SAN).

• 🛰️ SpaceX leads race for ‘Golden Dome’ missile shield: SpaceX, Palantir, and Anduril are front-runners to build Trump’s $6B–$10B satellite-based missile defense network. The project would use a subscription model and could reshape U.S. defense procurement ($PLTR).

• 🌍 BP faces shareholder pushback over climate strategy: BP Chairman Helge Lund was reelected with just 76% of investor backing, signaling dissatisfaction over the company’s climate policy reversal. The vote followed mounting pressure from Elliott Management and other activist shareholders ($BP).

FED
Trump Says He Has Power to Oust Fed’s Powell If He Chooses

President Trump isn’t mincing words when it comes to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This week, Trump said he could fire Powell “real fast” if he wanted to—escalating a long-running feud that could threaten the independence of the Fed and rattle global markets. He also slammed Powell as “terrible” and accused him of playing politics by keeping interest rates too high despite falling oil prices and a cooling inflation rate.

While Powell’s term runs through May 2026, Trump’s team has been floating the idea of replacing him early, potentially with former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. Behind the scenes, Trump has reportedly been debating the move for months, though some of his closest advisers—like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent—have warned it could backfire economically and legally.

High Stakes for the Fed

If Trump does attempt to remove Powell, the move would likely trigger a Supreme Court fight. That’s because a 1935 legal precedent—Humphrey’s Executor—protects independent agency heads from being fired without cause. Some in Trump’s orbit believe that ruling is ripe for challenge, and a broader Supreme Court case on agency removals is already in play.

Meanwhile, Powell is standing firm. He reiterated this week that the Fed’s independence is “a matter of law” and that the central bank “will never be influenced by any political pressure.” Fed watchers say any forced ouster would likely backfire, damaging market confidence and making it harder for the U.S. to control inflation or manage long-term debt.

No Panic (Yet)

Markets largely shrugged off the political drama—for now. Stocks rose Thursday on optimism about tariff deals, and the S&P 500 closed up 0.13%. But investors are keeping a close eye on how this showdown plays out, especially as Trump weighs further tariffs and economic moves that could test the Fed’s resolve. The next big flashpoint? The Supreme Court’s pending decision on agency removals, which could change the rules of the game altogether.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

Markets are taking a breather tomorrow with a full-day closure for Good Friday. No trading, no earnings, no data- just silence.

Enjoy the pause while it lasts,we’ll be back Monday

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NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🛍️ TikTokers Selling ‘Direct From Factory’ Chanel Might Be Scamming You: Chinese influencers are pushing Americans to bypass luxury brands and buy directly from supposed Chinese manufacturers. But many of the claims are dubious, with retailers denying involvement and experts warning of scams. Still, interest surged, and DHgate shot up the app store rankings amid tariff fears.

• 🔥 Fyre Festival 2 Postponed Amid Planning Chaos: Fyre Festival’s comeback event has been postponed indefinitely after organizers failed to secure a venue. A proposed Mexican location was reportedly unaware of the plans, raising concerns over credibility. The sequel appears to be following in the footsteps of its infamous predecessor.

• 🏛️ Harvard’s Federal Funding Freeze Could Reshape University Economics: President Trump’s move to freeze $2.2 billion in federal grants and threaten Harvard’s tax-exempt status marks a broader challenge to higher education. While Harvard has a $53 billion endowment, only 20% of it is unrestricted, limiting its ability to plug budget holes. The standoff could ripple through research, biotech, and national defense sectors reliant on university-driven innovation.

• ⚖️ Judge Finds ‘Probable Cause’ to Hold Officials in Contempt Over Deportations: A federal judge accused government officials of ignoring a court order to stop deporting Venezuelan men accused of gang ties. Although the Supreme Court later overturned the order, the judge said it still had to be followed while in effect. The government must now either show compliance or name those responsible for prosecution.

• 🤝 Trump Personally Joins Japan Trade Talks, Signals ‘Big Progress’: President Trump made a surprise appearance at the first round of in-person trade talks with Japan after pausing reciprocal tariffs. The administration hopes to finalize deals before the 90-day pause ends and isolate China in ongoing trade disputes. No details were shared, but Trump said “big progress” was made.

• 🚗 Americans Rush to Buy Cars Before Tariffs Hit: U.S. auto sales jumped 5.7% last month as buyers raced to avoid a looming 25% tariff on foreign cars. New duties are expected to raise sticker prices by $2,000 to $4,000 in the coming year. The pre-tariff rush also lifted retail sales by 1.4% overall in March.

• ⚖️ Trump Administration Sues Maine Over Transgender Athlete Policies: The federal government filed suit against Maine, arguing that its support of transgender women competing in girls’ sports violates Title IX. It’s part of a broader legal effort by the Trump administration to enforce restrictions on transgender participation in athletics.

• 🧑‍⚖️ California Challenges Federal Tariffs as Unconstitutional: California sued the federal government, saying Trump’s sweeping new tariffs violate the Constitution and damage the state’s economy. Officials argue the tariffs overstep presidential authority and disproportionately hurt key industries like agriculture and shipping.

• ⚖️ UK Supreme Court Rules 'Woman' Means Biologically Female in Equality Law: The UK’s highest court ruled that the term “woman” in the Equality Act refers exclusively to biological females. The decision excludes transgender women from certain legal protections and has ignited widespread debate about gender rights and access to public spaces.

• 🛸 Scientists Detect Potential Signs of Life on Exoplanet K2-18b: Using the James Webb Space Telescope, astronomers found compounds linked to algae in the atmosphere of K2-18b. While not proof of life, the discovery is the strongest evidence yet that life could exist beyond Earth. The findings are reshaping how scientists assess exoplanets for habitability.

• 🎤 Nate Bargatze to Host 2025 Emmy Awards: Comedian Nate Bargatze will host the Emmy Awards on September 14, 2025. Known for his clean humor and laid-back style, Bargatze is expected to bring a family-friendly tone to the ceremony. It will be broadcast live from Los Angeles on CBS and Paramount+.

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