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🗳️ Election Day Showdown

+ Boeing Ends Crippling Strike as Workers Accept Latest Offer

November 05, 2024

Good afternoon! With Election Day around the corner, 2024 is on track to become the most expensive election season ever, with spending projected to soar to $15.9 billion. Super PACs and outside groups are behind much of this surge, already funneling $2.6 billion into campaigns and likely to exceed $5 billion before voting wraps up. Yet, even with these record numbers, inflation-adjusted figures show that 2020’s spending—at an equivalent $18.3 billion—still takes the prize.

MARKETS

  • Investors braced for chaos but got a pleasant surprise—stocks rallied on Election Day, with markets closing in a sea of green. The Nasdaq led the pack, up 1.43%, its best day in weeks. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ticked up 1.23%, and the Dow jumped over 400 points. Turns out, a little election suspense doesn’t scare Wall Street.

  • The tight race between Trump and Harris has everyone on edge, but it’s Congress that’s got investors really watching. A win by either party could mean sweeping changes in spending and tax policies, setting the stage for some major market moves ahead.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

  • Astera Labs spiked 37.70% after beating Q3 expectations with earnings of 23 cents per share on revenue of $113.1 million, surpassing estimates of 17 cents per share and $97.5 million. The company also issued strong Q4 guidance. ($ALAB)

  • Palantir surged 23.47% following robust Q3 earnings and upbeat full-year revenue guidance, with revenue growing 30% year-over-year. ($PLTR)

  • Emerson Electric increased 7.16% after reporting Q4 earnings of $1.48 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.47, with net sales up 13% year-over-year, driven by the Intelligent Devices segment. ($EMR)

  • Super Micro Computer rose 6.42% despite missing current quarter earnings and sales estimates and delaying its 10-K annual report filing, originally postponed in late August. ($SMCI)

  • Coinbase advanced 4.13% as Bitcoin briefly reclaimed the $70,000 mark. ($COIN)

  • Tesla gained 3.54%, potentially benefiting from either outcome in Tuesday’s presidential election. ($TSLA)

  • Reddit rose 12.42%. ($RDDT)

  • Upstart Holdings climbed 7.11%. ($UPST)

What’s down 📉

  • Wynn Resorts fell 9.34% after reporting Q3 results that missed expectations, posting adjusted earnings of 90 cents per share on $1.69 billion in revenue, below analysts’ estimates. ($WYNN)

  • Archer Daniels Midland declined 5.97% following a Q3 earnings and full-year outlook miss, with Q3 earnings expected at $1.09, lower than analysts’ weakest estimate. ADM also amended its 2023 10-K and postponed its scheduled webcast. ($ADM)

  • Cirrus Logic dropped 7.09% after issuing Q4 revenue guidance between $480 million and $540 million, falling short of the $590 million consensus. ($CRUS)

  • Boeing slid 2.62% as turnaround efforts were impacted by a costly seven-week strike from its largest union, disrupting jet production. ($BA)

  • Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) dipped 3.49%. ($FIS)

ELECTION
Election Day Showdown: Trump vs. Harris And Your Portfolio

It’s finally Election Day, and after a campaign season that brought us viral squirrels, bear sightings, and unexpected pet memes, we’re getting back to the real talk: What does this mean for the economy?

Trump and Harris are pitching policies that could shake up your portfolio—here’s a breakdown of their promises, from taxes to trade and everything in between.

Big Tax Moves

Both candidates are waving different tax flags. Harris wants to roll the corporate tax rate up to 28%, targeting high earners with a minimum 25% tax on mega-wealth (those with over $100 million) and boosting capital gains for millionaires to 28%.

Trump, on the other hand, aims to lower the corporate rate to 15% for U.S.-based manufacturing and continue the individual and estate tax cuts he pushed in 2017. For big companies, these tax changes could directly affect their bottom lines, impacting market values and shareholder earnings.

Tariffs & Trade

Trump's plans are bolder when it comes to tariffs, proposing a 10% across-the-board levy on imports and up to a 200% tariff on Mexican-made cars. The goal? A “Made in America” resurgence, though economists warn this could send prices up across consumer goods.

Harris hasn’t proposed anything quite as drastic but has hinted she’d maintain Biden-era tariffs. While Trump’s approach is all about pushing U.S. manufacturing, Harris’s steadier stance may appeal to those wary of increased inflation risks.

What’s Next for Your Portfolio?

Analysts suggest a Harris administration could benefit clean energy, healthcare, and homebuilding sectors, while Trump could mean gains for oil, financials, and crypto.

But here’s the kicker: No matter who wins, staying diversified is key. Historically, the market has weathered administrations of all stripes and come out on top, and experts say focusing on long-term investments over election reactions is a winning strategy.

The Bottom Line: Campaign rhetoric is one thing; actual policy is another. Congress has a knack for turning grand ideas into smaller compromises, so while the headlines might sound big, the reality might be more tempered. As we head into a period of potential market jitters, a steady hand and a diversified portfolio might be the most presidential decision you can make.

NEWS
Market Movements

  • 📉 Markets Await Election Results with Volatility in Focus: Global investors are on edge as the U.S. election could shape tax and trade policies, with traders bracing for potential overnight swings if results are delayed or contested. ($SPY)

  • 📈 Palantir Surges on Raised Revenue Forecast: Palantir shares jumped over 23.47% as the company increased its 2024 revenue forecast to $2.805–$2.809B, bolstered by AI platform demand and a 40% rise in U.S. government contracts. ($PLTR)

  • 🚗 Ford Sees October Sales Surge Despite EV Decline: Ford reported a 15.2% rise in U.S. vehicle sales for October, with a 29.2% increase in trucks and a 38.5% boost in hybrid sales, while EV sales dropped 8.3%. Market share rose to 12.6%. ($F)

  • 🔌 Emerson Proposes $15.1B AspenTech Buyout: Emerson Electric proposed to acquire remaining shares of AspenTech at $240 per share and announced a $2B stock buyback plan for FY2025, while considering strategic options for its Safety & Productivity unit. ($EMR)

  • 🇰🇷 South Korea Hits Meta with $15M Privacy Fine: Meta faces a $15M fine from South Korea for illegally collecting and sharing sensitive user data, including political views and sexual orientation, impacting 980,000 users from 2018 to 2022. ($META)

  • 💼 Netflix Under Tax Investigation in France and Netherlands: French and Dutch authorities searched Netflix’s Paris and Amsterdam offices in a tax fraud probe launched in 2022. ($NFLX)

  • 📱 Vodafone and Three Merger Nears Approval in the U.K.: The U.K. Competition and Markets Authority indicated potential approval for Vodafone's $19.5B merger with Three, pending a $14.46B telecom investment and consumer protection measures. ($VOD)

  • 🚘 Tesla Abandons Low-Cost EV Plans for "Cybercab" Focus: Elon Musk announced that Tesla will not pursue a $25,000 human-driven EV, instead prioritizing the autonomous "Cybercab," deeming a low-cost non-autonomous model "pointless." ($TSLA)

  • 🤖 Physical Intelligence Raises $400M for AI-Powered Robotics: Robotics startup Physical Intelligence secured $400M in funding, reaching a $2.4B valuation with backing from Jeff Bezos, OpenAI, and Lux Capital, focusing on integrating AI into diverse physical tasks

AEROSPACE
Boeing Ends Crippling Strike as Workers Accept Latest Offer

After a 53-day standoff, Boeing’s machinists are ready to trade picket signs for power tools again. In a nail-biter of a vote, 59% of union members gave the thumbs-up to a new contract that includes a hefty 38% pay bump over four years. '

Boeing’s production lines can finally get back in gear, which means more jets—and less red ink.

A Deal That Soars Higher Than a 737

This new contract is a big win for Boeing’s workforce. We’re talking a 13% instant pay boost, with average salaries climbing to around $119,000 by the end of the deal. Plus, there’s a $12,000 signing bonus to sweeten the pot.

After years of less-than-stellar raises, machinists have muscled in some major gains—though it did take seven weeks of picketing and freezing fingers to make it happen.

New CEO, New Strategy, and a Costly Pause

For Boeing’s new CEO Kelly Ortberg, it’s been a turbulent start. Since August, he’s been cutting costs, raising cash, and trying to stay aloft amid production halts and stock hits. The strike alone was draining Boeing of $100 million a day—something the jet giant could hardly afford as shares plummeted over 40% this year.

The settlement is welcome news, but getting production back up to speed won’t be instant, especially with 737 MAX orders still lagging.

What’s Next: Planes, Patience, and Recovery

Machinists will be back on the factory floor this week, but don’t expect planes to roll out overnight. Boeing’s whole supply chain, from fuselage makers to flight-schedule-hungry airlines, took a hit during the strike.

Ramping up production will take time, and Boeing’s finances are far from stable, with the company still predicting a cash flow drought through 2025.

The bottom line? Boeing may have scored a truce with its workers, but it’s still got plenty of turbulence to ride out on its journey back to cruising altitude.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

Election Day may be in the rearview, but don’t exhale just yet—the ballot counting marathon is expected to stretch through the week. Get ready for wall-to-wall analysis, endless charts, and enough speculations to fill a football stadium.

But politics isn’t the only headline. Tomorrow, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicks off a two-day meeting. These are the folks steering the ship on interest rates, so all eyes will be on what they decide.

And with the decision dropping Thursday, there’s plenty of time for news channels to keep you entertained with eye-catching graphics and live updates.

Before Market Open:

  • Novo Nordisk reigns supreme in the weight-loss drug market, but staying on top is no small feat when every pharma giant wants a slice of the action. Investors will be eager to hear how management plans to fend off rivals, with hopes pinned on a robust drug pipeline that could shield them from competition. And with pill forms of its popular injectable GLP-1 drugs nearing the market, the timing couldn't be better. Expectations: $0.91 EPS, $10.77 billion in revenue. Earnings drop after the close. ($NVO)

After Market Close:

  • Duolingo’s problem? Too much of a good thing. The language-learning app has soared nearly 90% in the past year, fueled by skyrocketing subscriber growth and a clever AI-powered revamp that lets them charge extra. But with shares now highly priced, investors are wondering if it’s too steep to keep snapping up. No signs of slowing subscription growth yet, but that valuation could be the elephant in the room. Expectations: $0.35 EPS, $189.16 million in revenue. ($DUOL)

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

  • 🪧 NY Times Tech Workers Strike: About 600 New York Times Tech Guild members walked off the job, jeopardizing the outlet’s Election Day digital operations. The Guild asked readers to support their protest by avoiding the newspaper’s digital content.

  • 📦 Russian Packages in Europe Raise Concerns: Authorities report incendiary packages traced to Lithuania and sent by Russian proxies, testing whether such devices could reach North America undetected.

  • 📺 The Rise of Ginormous TVs: Sales of 97-inch and larger TVs have exploded, with 38.1 million sold this year, a 10x increase over 2023. As prices continue to fall, TV enthusiasts are opting for immersive viewing experiences once reserved for theaters.

  • 🎟️ Elon Musk's $1 Million Daily Giveaway Faces Legal Scrutiny: The treasurer of America PAC, overseeing Elon Musk's $1 million daily "lottery," stated in a hearing that recipients "are not chosen by chance." Despite this, a judge denied the Philadelphia district attorney's request to halt the contest.

  • 🏠 Median Income and Age of First-Time Homebuyers Rise in 2024: In 2024, first-time homebuyers had a median income of $97,000, with a median age of 38.

  • 💸 Colleges Implement 'Talent Fees' and 'Athletic Surcharges' to Offset Athlete Compensation: Colleges are introducing "talent fees" and "athletic surcharges" on sports tickets and at concession stands to help offset the costs associated with compensating college athletes.

RESOURCES
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