👀 Jamie Dimon's Warning

Good afternoon! Turns out, we’re not just losing our minds—we’re also leaving behind lobsters. Uber’s latest Lost & Found Index is out, and it’s packed with the usual suspects (phones, keys, wallets) as well as a parade of weirdness: mannequin heads, viking horns, a Ghostbusters ghost trap, and yes, ten live lobsters. New York took the crown as the most forgetful city, and October 26 was the day Uber drivers became impromptu storage units.

The report doesn’t just highlight bizarre one-offs—it shows trends too. Red items were the most lost by color, Apple products topped the brand list, and post-workout warriors regularly forgot pilates socks and yoga mats. Uber even tracked “lost by weekday” data, revealing that cowboy hats peak on Saturdays and debit cards go MIA on Sundays. As for the truly irreplaceable? Someone left behind their puppy, wedding bouquet, and a gallon of Grey Goose.

MARKETS

• Stocks ended Friday on a high note, shaking off another volley in the US-China trade war. China raised its retaliatory tariffs to a jaw-dropping 125%, but markets found a silver lining in White House comments that President Trump is “optimistic” about a deal. After a chaotic week, Wall Street seemed content to take a breath heading into the weekend.

• The S&P 500 jumped 1.8% for the day, the Nasdaq rallied 2.1%, and the Dow climbed 1.6%, or 619 points. Even with economic warning signs flashing and Treasury yields spiking, investors chose relief over panic—at least for now.

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STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• MicroStrategy soared 10.15% as bitcoin prices rebounded, bringing the crypto proxy stock along for the ride. ($MSTR)

• Newmont Corp. and Barrick Gold gained 7.91% and 7.02%, respectively, as spot gold hit all-time highs and UBS upgraded Newmont to buy. ($NEM, $GOLD)

• Fastenal rose 6.40% after strong earnings, benefiting from manufacturers stockpiling ahead of expected tariff impacts. ($FAST)

• Apple climbed 4.06%, rebounding from a rough month as investors embraced news of emergency iPhone shipments from India to avoid China tariffs. ($AAPL)

• JPMorgan Chase rose 4% after a revenue beat and record equity market revenue, though CEO Jamie Dimon warned of economic turbulence ahead. ($JPM)

• BlackRock advanced 2.33% after topping earnings expectations, with assets under management climbing to a record $11.58 billion. ($BLK)

• Morgan Stanley added 1.44% after beating forecasts with earnings of $2.60 per share versus the expected $2.20. ($MS)

What’s down 📉

• Texas Instruments sank 5.75% as China’s Semiconductor Industry Association issued emergency duty hikes targeting foreign chip imports. ($TXN)

• Frontier Group dropped 5.60% after the airline slashed its Q1 guidance and pulled full-year outlook, citing weak demand and economic uncertainty. ($ULCC)

• Wells Fargo declined 0.97% despite a Q1 earnings beat, as the bank missed revenue estimates and warned of a slower 2025. ($WFC)

• Stellantis dipped 0.50% after reporting a 9% YoY decline in global shipments due to weak North American output and European van sales. ($STLA)

• Intel slipped 0.70% under the same pressure from China's retaliatory chip tariffs. ($INTC)

EARNINGS
Jamie Dimon Says He Expects S&P 500 Earnings Estimates To Fall As Companies Pull Guidance

If markets are going to swing wildly, someone’s got to catch the wave—and JPMorgan’s traders rode it like pros. The bank’s stock traders pulled in a record $3.81 billion in Q1, up 48% from last year and beating all expectations. The surge came on the heels of Trump’s tariff bombshells, which injected a healthy dose of volatility across global markets. And unlike many who panicked, JPMorgan made bank.

Dimon Stays Bullish, With Caution

Despite the windfall, CEO Jamie Dimon isn’t popping champagne just yet. He warned of “considerable turbulence,” citing sticky inflation, sky-high deficits, and—you guessed it—tariffs. JPMorgan also set aside nearly $1 billion in reserves for potential loan losses, a clear signal that it’s bracing for economic bumps ahead. Still, the bank’s overall trading revenue rose 21%, with fixed income chipping in $5.85 billion.

Dimon told Fox Business he sees a recession as “likely,” and he expects S&P 500 earnings estimates to fall—possibly into negative territory next month. That would explain why many companies are pulling their guidance altogether. JPMorgan itself is sticking to its targets for now but admits the environment is growing murkier by the week.

Not Just JPM

Other Wall Street giants are feeling the same storm. Morgan Stanley also reported a 45% surge in equities trading revenue, while Wells Fargo said customers are hitting pause on big investments. Treasury yields spiked earlier this week as investors dumped government bonds—a rare sign that even the safest assets felt risky.

But for all the doom and gloom, Dimon isn’t abandoning his faith in the U.S.
“This is still the most prosperous nation on the planet,” he said.
Wall Street, meet your silver lining.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 💡 Anker Hikes Prices on Amazon as Tariffs Bite: Chinese electronics brand Anker has raised prices on dozens of products sold on Amazon following the latest tariff hikes. The increases affect everything from power banks to chargers and mice. Analysts say more consumer electronics brands may follow suit. ($AMZN)

• 📉 Temu Drops Out of Top U.S. Shopping App Rankings Post-Tariffs: Temu, once the top shopping app in the U.S., fell to fifth place after Trump ended the de minimis rule on Chinese imports. The change raised costs and complicated shipping for bargain retailers like Temu and Shein. Both brands have struggled to maintain momentum. ($PDD)

• 📦 India Surges Smartphone Exports to U.S. Ahead of Tariff Hike: India rapidly boosted phone shipments to the U.S. in Q1 as manufacturers rushed to beat the April tariff implementation. Industry officials say the last-minute cargo lifts cement India’s role as a growing production hub. Apple, among others, is expanding its Indian manufacturing footprint. ($AAPL)

• 📈 BlackRock CEO Larry Fink Warns of Inflation and Recession Risk: BlackRock’s Larry Fink cautioned lawmakers that tariffs could drive up inflation and lead to a short-term recession. Speaking on Fox Business, he said he’s advising both Congress and the White House on potential economic fallout. Fink’s comments underscore growing Wall Street unease. ($BLK)

• 💻 TSMC Faces Potential $1B Fine for Alleged Export Violations: Taiwan Semiconductor may be hit with over $1 billion in U.S. penalties for producing AI chips for China’s Sophgo, which allegedly mimic restricted Huawei designs. The situation raises concerns about enforcement gaps in export controls. A fine of this size would be among the largest ever imposed on a chipmaker. ($TSM)

• 🚘 Google Ends Antitrust Probe by Opening Up In-Car Tech in Europe: Google has agreed to allow rivals’ apps and mapping services to integrate with its Android Automotive platform across Europe. In return, Germany dropped its antitrust probe. The change could reshape competition in the rapidly evolving in-car software space. ($GOOGL)

• 🍺 Constellation Brands Blames Trump Immigration Policy for Beer Sales Slump: The company says Latino consumers, who drive about half its beer revenue, are spending less due to political and economic anxiety. Shares have declined 23% since Trump’s election. The slowdown is weighing on its Modelo and Corona beer lines. ($STZ)

TARIFFS
US Chipmakers Outsourcing Manufacturing Will Escape China's tariffs

Semiconductor stocks with U.S. manufacturing footprints got whacked Friday after China clarified its retaliatory tariffs will be based on where chips are made—not who makes them. Beijing hiked tariffs on U.S. goods from 84% to 125%, and that’s especially painful for companies like Texas Instruments and Intel, which run fabs on American soil.
The China Semiconductor Industry Association said that the country of origin will now be determined by fabrication—not packaging—essentially taxing U.S.-made chips even if they’re assembled elsewhere.

Winners: Outsourcers and TSMC Clients

In a twist, chip designers like Nvidia, AMD, and Qualcomm caught a break. Because they outsource manufacturing to TSMC in Taiwan, their products are officially considered “non-U.S.” by Chinese customs. That exemption sent AMD shares up 5.30%, Nvidia up 3.12%, and Qualcomm up 3.61%.

Analysts say this could drive a shift toward “China-for-China” manufacturing strategies, incentivizing firms to fab locally and skirt tariffs entirely. In the meantime, Chinese chipmakers rallied on hopes that reduced U.S. competition could help them grab market share.

The Big Picture: A Split Supply Chain

While some investors were caught off guard—many assumed packaging would determine origin—analysts now say the CSIA’s fab-based rule may force U.S. chipmakers to rethink their logistics entirely. It’s a win for China’s homegrown semiconductor scene and a headache for any U.S. firm still clinging to domestic production.

As Mizuho’s Jordan Klein put it: “The U.S.-China trade deal is all that matters right now” for semis. With no deal in sight, uncertainty will likely keep weighing on the sector—and send a loud message: location matters more than ever.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Next Week

Let’s all take a collective exhale—Wall Street survived one of its most chaotic weeks in recent memory. Tariffs, whiplash-inducing swings, and a rollercoaster of Fed chatter...it’s been a lot. Fortunately, next week’s economic calendar is a little lighter, with retail sales and jobless claims sprinkled between housing data and manufacturing surveys.

But don’t get too comfy—earnings season is warming up fast. Financial giants will set the tone, and a handful of heavyweight names across sectors will keep things interesting.

Earnings:

• Monday: Goldman Sachs ($GS), M&T Bank ($MTB), and Applied Digital ($APLD)
  

• Tuesday: Bank of America ($BAC), Citigroup ($C), PNC Financial Services ($PNC), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), Albertsons ($ACI), United Airlines ($UAL), JB Hunt Transportation Services ($JBHT), and Interactive Brokers Group ($IBKR)

• Wednesday: US Bancorp ($USB), Citizens Financial ($CFG), Abbott Laboratories ($ABT), ASML ($ASML), Progressive ($PGR), The Travelers Companies ($TRV), Kinder Morgan ($KMI), Alcoa ($AA), and CSX ($CSX)

• Thursday: TSMC ($TSM), Netflix ($NFLX), American Express ($AXP), Charles Schwab ($SCHW), UnitedHealth ($UNH), Blackstone ($BX), D.R. Horton ($DHI), Ally Financial ($ALLY), Truist Financial ($TFC), and Infosys ($INFY)

• Friday: Markets are closed for Good Friday. Rest up—you earned it.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🚁 Helicopter Crash in NYC Kills Siemens Exec and Family: A Bell 206 helicopter crashed into the Hudson River, killing all six on board, including Siemens Spain President Agustín Escobar, his wife, and their children. The pilot had radioed a fuel issue before the chopper disintegrated midair. Investigators from the FAA and NTSB are probing the cause.

• 🌐 U.S.–China Trade Relationship Breaks Down as Tariffs Rise: President Trump excluded China from a 90-day tariff pause, instead raising duties on Chinese goods to 145%. The decision threatens to upend the $600 billion trade flow between the two countries, with both sides digging in. U.S. retailers are delaying Christmas orders, and China is threatening to limit U.S. film imports while deepening ties with Southeast Asia.

• 📈 Democrats Demand Insider Trading Probe After Tariff Pause Rally: Lawmakers including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez called for an investigation into potential insider trading tied to Trump’s tariff announcements. The market soared after the pause was revealed, raising concerns that some individuals may have profited using nonpublic information. Lawmakers renewed calls for tighter rules on congressional stock trading.

• ⚖️ OpenAI Countersues Elon Musk Over Alleged Harassment and Vendetta: OpenAI filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk, accusing him of using legal action and public attacks to harm the company he helped found. The suit describes Musk’s behavior as a “personal vendetta” and cites a failed “sham bid” to acquire OpenAI assets. It follows Musk’s own lawsuit claiming OpenAI abandoned its nonprofit mission.

• ⚾ MLB May Consider Salary Cap for First Time: MLB owners and Commissioner Rob Manfred are discussing the possibility of introducing a salary cap ahead of the 2026 CBA negotiations. The league has long resisted a cap, but concerns over spending disparities have grown. The players union strongly opposes it, recalling the 1994 strike that canceled months of the season.

• 🎭 'Saturday Night Live' to Launch UK Version in 2026: SNL will debut a British edition on Sky in 2026, with a new cast and original sketches. While international versions of the show have struggled, producers hope the UK’s strong comedy culture will help this one stick. Past attempts in countries like France, Russia, and Brazil lasted only a few episodes.

• 🏛️ House Narrowly Passes Budget Blueprint Backing Trump’s Agenda: In a 216–214 vote, the House adopted a budget plan supporting President Trump’s fiscal strategy. Two Republicans joined Democrats in opposition, highlighting intra-party divisions. The plan includes sweeping spending cuts and sets up future battles over federal funding priorities.

  🎥 Oscars to Add Stunt Design Category in 2027: The Academy will recognize stunt design as an official Oscar category beginning in 2027. Hollywood figures praised the move as a long-overdue acknowledgment of the craft and danger involved in stunt work. The addition aims to highlight the technical artistry behind major action scenes.

• 🎬 Cannes Film Festival Announces 2025 Lineup Featuring Spike Lee and Wes Anderson: The Cannes Film Festival revealed a star-studded lineup that includes films by renowned directors and emerging talent. This year’s selection spans a wide range of global cinema, reinforcing the festival’s reputation for celebrating creative excellence. The event continues to draw global attention from critics and audiences alike.

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