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  • 🤠 Wall Street Heads South

🤠 Wall Street Heads South

+ Earnings From Coinbase, AppLovin, Airbnb

February 13, 2025

Good afternoon! Apple is taking a big swing at health research with its new Apple Health Study, aiming to analyze data from iPhones, Apple Watches, and AirPods to uncover connections between physical and mental health. Unlike its past studies that focused on specific conditions, this one casts a wide net, tracking everything from heart health to sleep patterns.

Apple has a history of turning research into product features—like its AirPods hearing test—so the study could lay the groundwork for future health tools. But don’t expect instant results. With a five-year timeline, any breakthroughs will take time to translate into real-world tech.

MARKETS

  • Stocks climbed Thursday as investors exhaled on news that President Trump’s latest tariff threats won’t take effect immediately. The Dow rose over 350 points, while the S&P 500 inched within striking distance of a record high. Tech led the way, with Nvidia and Tesla fueling a 1.5% pop in the Nasdaq.

  • Even with inflation coming in hotter than expected—PPI rose 0.4% versus the 0.3% forecast—markets shrugged it off in favor of bullish earnings reports. Traders are betting that without immediate tariff action, the Fed will have more breathing room to stay the course on rates.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

  • Dutch Bros surged 29.1% after delivering a strong Q4 earnings report, posting EPS of $0.07 vs. $0.02 expected, alongside upbeat full-year revenue guidance. ($BROS)

  • AppLovin jumped 24.02% following a Q4 beat, with EPS of $1.73 topping estimates of $1.24 and revenue of $1.37B exceeding the $1.26B consensus. ($APP)

  • MGM Resorts soared 17.46% after posting record Q4 revenue of $4.35B, beating estimates of $4.27B, and forecasting profitability for BetMGM this year. ($MGM)

  • Robinhood gained 14.11% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.01B, topping the $944.6M expected by analysts. ($HOOD)

  • Molson Coors popped 9.52% after posting Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.30 vs. $1.13 expected, alongside a better-than-expected revenue beat. ($TAP)

  • Sony rose 5.55% after beating fiscal Q3 expectations with revenue of 4.41T yen, well above the 3.76T yen forecast. ($SONY)

  • Nvidia climbed 3.16% after Hewlett Packard Enterprise announced it had shipped its first Nvidia Blackwell system. ($NVDA)

What’s down 📉

  • West Pharmaceutical Services plummeted 38.22% after issuing weak full-year guidance, forecasting EPS of $6-$6.20 vs. the $7.45 expected. ($WST)

  • Trade Desk tumbled 32.98% after missing Q4 revenue estimates with $741M vs. $759M expected and issuing weak Q1 guidance. ($TTD)

  • Hanesbrands dropped 18.51% after missing Q4 revenue expectations and announcing CEO Steve Bratspies will step down by the end of 2025. ($HBI)

  • Barclays slid 5.52% after issuing disappointing guidance for 2025. ($BCS)

  • Reddit fell 5.32% after missing Q4 user growth expectations, despite a 39% year-over-year increase in daily active unique visitors. ($RDDT)

MARKETS
Wall Street Heads South, NYSE Expands to Texas

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is launching NYSE Texas, reincorporating its Chicago operations into a fully electronic exchange in Dallas. With $3.7 trillion in market value already represented by Texas-based NYSE listings, the state is becoming a major player in corporate America’s future. The move signals a deeper shift in the financial world, as firms seek a business-friendly environment with lower taxes and lighter regulations.

A Texas-Sized Showdown

NYSE Texas enters the ring against the Texas Stock Exchange (TXSE), an upstart backed by BlackRock and Citadel, set to start trading in 2026. TXSE has marketed itself as an antidote to Wall Street’s ESG-focused regulations, attracting firms eager to avoid political and social investment mandates. With $161 million already raised and regulatory filings in motion, TXSE is positioning itself as a serious competitor.

Texas’ Bigger Bet: More Than Just Exchanges

The finance migration to Texas isn’t stopping at stock markets. Tesla and SpaceX reincorporated in the state last year, and reports suggest Meta is considering a similar move. The influx of financial powerhouses has led to a booming infrastructure expansion, with firms like Goldman Sachs building a Dallas campus for 5,000 employees. Texas is also working to rival Delaware as a corporate legal hub, creating a specialized business court to attract more companies.

NYSE vs. TXSE: Who Wins?

The battle for Texas’ financial crown is heating up. While NYSE Texas carries Wall Street’s most prestigious brand, TXSE has the backing of powerful financial firms. Nasdaq is also watching closely, having already reorganized its listings business to account for Texas’ growing market. With multiple exchanges vying for dominance, Texas could soon become one of the country’s biggest financial hubs.

NEWS
Market Movements

  • 🎮 GameStop explores Bitcoin investment: GameStop is considering investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as part of its alternative asset strategy. CEO Ryan Cohen's recent meeting with MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor fueled speculation. Shares of GameStop jumped as much as 20% after the news. ($GME)

  • 🚗 Honda and Nissan abandon $60B merger talks: Honda and Nissan officially ended merger discussions after disagreements over control. Nissan, facing declining earnings, will accelerate restructuring, with Foxconn open to buying a stake in the carmaker. ($HMC)

  • 🤖 Musk offers to withdraw OpenAI bid under one condition: Elon Musk has proposed dropping his $97.4B bid for OpenAI if the company maintains its nonprofit structure. OpenAI, led by CEO Sam Altman, has not yet rejected the offer but argues the bid conflicts with its mission.

  • 🚙 Tesla secures $400M State Department contract: The Trump Administration plans to purchase $400M worth of armored Tesla vehicles, according to a State Department procurement document. Later on, The Department halted it. Elon Musk denied media claims about the deal. ($TSLA)

  • 📡 FCC launches investigation into Comcast’s diversity programs: FCC Chair Brendan Carr has mandated an investigation into Comcast’s diversity initiatives, expanding regulatory scrutiny on media companies. ($CMCSA)

  • 🛢 Chevron to cut 9,000 jobs amid cost reductions: Chevron will lay off up to 9,000 employees, or 20% of its workforce, to cut costs by $2B-$3B amid lower oil prices. Despite job cuts, the company expects 6% production growth in 2025 and is expanding operations in India. ($CVX)

  • 📉 South Korea fines JPMorgan and others for short-selling violations: South Korean regulators fined JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and Nomura for breaking short-selling regulations. The decision follows a national short-selling ban imposed in Nov. 2023. ($JPM, $MS, $UBS, $NMR)

  • 🇺🇸 Trump signs reciprocal tariff plan, signals more on the way: President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs, stating the U.S. will match foreign trade barriers, including VATs and subsidies. Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick will lead a review to set tariff levels by April 1. The new tariffs will follow duties already imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico.

EARNINGS
Echelon Of Earnings From Coinbase, AppLovin, Airbnb

Coinbase Surges as Crypto Trading Booms Post-Election

Coinbase jumped 8.44% after delivering blockbuster Q4 earnings, thanks to a 179% spike in consumer transaction revenue as retail investors flocked back post-election. The crypto exchange pulled in $2.27 billion in revenue, smashing estimates of $1.87 billion, while net income soared to $1.29 billion, or $4.68 per share, beating forecasts. Management called this the “dawn of a new era for crypto,” and with subscription and services revenue expected to hit up to $765 million in Q1, Coinbase isn’t just along for the ride—it’s in the driver’s seat. ($COIN)

AppLovin Cashes Out on Gaming, Doubles Down on AI Ads

AppLovin soared 24.02% after announcing it’s offloading its mobile gaming business for $900 million to focus on its AI-powered ad software. The ad tech company crushed Q4 expectations with 44% revenue growth, fueled by a 73% spike in ad sales. Management sees Q1 revenue between $1.36 billion and $1.39 billion, well above the $1.32 billion forecast. CEO Adam Foroughi put it bluntly: “We’ve never been a game developer at heart.” Wall Street, apparently, agrees. ($APP)

Airbnb Books Strong Q4, But Revenue Guidance Disappoints

Airbnb climbed 14.22% after-hours riding a strong holiday travel wave, with APAC and Latin America leading growth. Q4 revenue landed at $2.27 billion, just edging past expectations, and adjusted earnings beat estimates too. But investors flinched at Airbnb’s Q1 revenue forecast of $2.23 billion to $2.27 billion, slightly below the $2.29 billion consensus. To keep the momentum going, the company is dropping $250 million into new products, including travel experiences and in-home services. Looks like Airbnb is hoping to be more than just your go-to vacation rental. ($ABNB)

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

After back-to-back inflation shocks, Friday’s lineup looks refreshingly low stakes. Retail sales data will give a pulse check on consumer spending, while industrial production and capacity utilization reports should confirm whether the manufacturing sector is still losing steam.

Before Market Open:

  • Moderna has a unique problem: it's making vaccines at the exact same time fewer Americans than ever trust vaccines. Politics aside, the impact on the company's bottom line has been undeniably severe, and shares have sunk quarter after quarter. Analysts expect no difference this quarter, and while hopes are high that the company can develop an avian flu vaccine soon, RFK Jr's confirmation today shows there are still plenty of speedbumps ahead. Consensus: -$2.72 EPS, $951.09 million in revenue. ($MRNA)

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

RESOURCES
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