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  • 🩸 Tesla's First Annual Sales Drop

🩸 Tesla's First Annual Sales Drop

+ Carvana Is Cooking Its Books, Hindenburg Research Claims

January 02, 2025

Good afternoon! Autonomous tech had an awkward meet-cute in LA last week when a Waymo robotaxi grazed a Serve Robotics delivery bot in West Hollywood. The delivery bot was attempting a curb maneuver when the robotaxi, making a right turn, tapped it at a cautious 4 mph. No damage, no drama—just a viral video fueling Reddit jokes about robots learning to “drive human.”

Serve confirmed its bot was under remote supervision, while Waymo said its system correctly identified the bot as inanimate and hit the brakes. The incident raises questions about liability as more robots hit the streets, but for now, both companies are focused on making sure their tech stays out of each other’s way.

MARKETS

  • The stock market stumbled out of the gate for 2025, with early gains fading into red by midday Thursday. The S&P 500 shed 0.2%, the Dow dipped 0.3% (losing 150 points), and the Nasdaq ticked down 0.2%. Losses spanned across tech giants, carmakers, and casino operators, dampening hopes for a strong start after a blockbuster two-year run.

  • Even so, optimism lingers for the year ahead. Jobless claims fell to 211,000 last week, signaling economic resilience as the new year begins. But after the sad ending of the long awaited Santa Clause rally, investors may need more than positive data to reignite the momentum that powered recent market gains.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

  • MicroCloud Hologram soared 17.65% after announcing progress in developing quantum computing technology. ($HOLO)

  • Topgolf Callaway Brands jumped 14.50% after Jefferies upgraded the stock, citing strong value and potential upside. ($MODG)

  • Unity Software climbed 9.08%, fueled by a cryptic social media post from Roaring Kitty. ($U)

  • Constellation Energy gained 8.44% after securing $1 billion in nuclear energy contracts with the U.S. government. ($CEG)

  • Synaptics rose 8.07% following a partnership with Alphabet to integrate Edge AI into its hardware. ($SYNA)

What’s down 📉

  • Neumora Therapeutics plunged 81.42% after its depression treatment failed a Phase 3 trial. ($NMRA)

  • SoFi Technologies dropped 8.25% on a downgrade from KBW, citing an overstretched valuation. ($SOFI)

  • Boeing slipped 2.90% after a South Korean inspection order for its 737-800 planes following a fatal crash. ($BA)

  • Carvana fell 1.87% following a critical report from Hindenburg Research alleging accounting issues. ($CVNA)

EV
Tesla’s Annual EV Sales Drop for First Time in Over a Decade

Tesla Hits the Brakes

For the first time in over a decade, Tesla’s annual vehicle sales have shifted into reverse. The EV titan delivered 1.79 million cars in 2024, down slightly from 2023, despite a record-breaking fourth quarter with 495,570 deliveries. The shortfall, though small, was enough to miss Wall Street’s lofty expectations—and Tesla’s own modest growth goal.

Shares skidded 6% following the news, closing out a year where the stock soared over 60%, fueled by investor optimism (and a little political intrigue involving Elon Musk and his new BFF, President-elect Donald Trump).

Speed Bumps Along the Way

The EV market isn’t the freewheeling road trip it used to be. Tesla’s sales momentum hit potholes in 2024, from a slowdown in global EV demand to production hiccups (thanks to an arson attack on its Berlin factory). Price cuts and flashy incentives helped in the fourth quarter, but not enough to steer Tesla back into growth mode.

Meanwhile, the Cybertruck, Tesla’s latest launch, debuted with plenty of buzz—but mixed reception. Priced at a cool $79,990, it’s not exactly the affordable EV that consumers are clamoring for. And competitors like China’s BYD and Hyundai are closing in fast.

Looking Ahead

Musk has big plans for 2025: think 20%-30% growth, fueled by a new lower-cost vehicle (details TBD) and progress in autonomous driving tech. But there’s a hitch: Trump’s expected rollback of EV subsidies could hurt Tesla’s bottom line, even as regulatory easing for self-driving cars plays in its favor.

For now, investors are hedging their bets. Tesla may still dominate the EV market in the U.S., but rivals are gunning for its crown globally—and with consumer demand cooling, the road ahead looks anything but smooth.

NEWS
Market Movements

  • 💼 Meta leadership shift ahead of Trump era: Nick Clegg is stepping down as Meta’s global affairs president, with Joel Kaplan, a longtime Republican ally, taking over policy. The move comes as Meta works to rebuild ties with President-elect Trump, who has criticized the platform for perceived conservative bias. ($META)

  • 🏦 Fed reserves fall to 2020 lows: U.S. banking reserves fell below $3 trillion, marking the largest weekly decline in over two years as the Fed continues quantitative tightening. Analysts debate how much longer QT can persist without sparking liquidity concerns. ($FED)

  • 💊 Neumora crashes after trial failure: Neumora Therapeutics plunged 82% after its depression drug, navacaprant, failed to show significant improvement in a final-stage trial for major depressive disorder. ($NMRA)

  • 🍔 Restaurant closures rise in 2024: Several U.S. restaurant chains, including Wendy's, Applebee's, Denny's, and Noodles & Co., closed numerous underperforming locations due to weak consumer spending. Casual-dining chains were hit hardest, with 26 restaurant bankruptcies reported during the year. ($WEN, $DIN, $DENN, $NDLS)

  • 🌊 Equinor secures $3B for wind project: Norwegian energy company Equinor secured over $3B in financing for its U.S.-based Empire Wind 1 offshore project, with total investments estimated at $5B. The project is set to power 500,000 New York homes by 2027. ($EQNR)

  • 📱 Apple discounts iPhones in China: Apple unveiled significant mark-offs on iPhones in China for the Lunar New Year as competition with Huawei intensifies. Apple’s Q3 shipments in China fell 6% YoY, while Huawei's rose 24%, increasing its market share to 16% and surpassing Apple. ($AAPL)

  • 🛒 Alibaba sells Sun Art stake: Alibaba is selling its 78.7% stake in Chinese hypermarket chain Sun Art Retail Group to DCP Capital Partners for $1.7B, booking a $1.8B loss. ($BABA)

  • 🚗 BYD outpaces Tesla in sales: Chinese EV maker BYD sold over 200K EVs last month to notch 1.76M sales in 2024, a 41% YoY increase. BYD's Q3 revenue of $28.2B surpassed Tesla’s $25.2B. ($SHE:002594, $TSLA)

  • ⚡ Chinese EV makers extend discounts: Chinese EV makers, including Nio and Li Auto, extended discounts and incentives into 2025, fueling a price war in the world's largest auto market. While subsidized sales of EVs and hybrids surpassed 10M units in China last year, auto-related retail sales slumped 0.7% YoY. ($NIO, $LI)

AUTO
Carvana Is Cooking Its Books, Hindenburg Research Claims

It’s not every day you see a company’s success called a “mirage.” But that’s exactly how Hindenburg Research described Carvana’s recent rally. The short-seller dropped a bombshell report accusing the online used-car retailer of financial manipulation, claiming its growth relies on risky subprime loans and alleged self-dealing.

Allegations on the Table

Hindenburg’s report, titled “Carvana: A Father-Son Accounting Grift for the Ages,” claims the company uses dubious loan practices to pad its financials. It goes further, alleging that Carvana’s CEO, Ernie Garcia III, and his father, Ernie Garcia II—who owns DriveTime, a private car dealership—are collaborating in ways that boost Carvana's numbers while allowing the elder Garcia to cash out billions.

Key claims include:

  • Loan approvals for all: Hindenburg cites a former director who alleged that Carvana approved nearly 100% of its loan applicants.

  • Related-party sales: The report suggests Carvana sold $800 million in loans to a buyer tied to DriveTime, despite the company calling it an "unrelated third party."

  • Propping up performance: Hindenburg claims the servicer of Carvana’s loans extends repayment terms to avoid higher delinquency rates, making risky loans appear more stable.

Carvana, which once teetered on the brink of bankruptcy, saw its stock price soar nearly 400% in 2024 amid a broader turnaround narrative. But Hindenburg argues that this recovery was artificially inflated. The timing of stock sales is fueling speculation—especially since Garcia II reportedly sold $1.4 billion worth of shares during the surge.

Carvana’s Response: The company dismissed the report, calling it “misleading and inaccurate.” It highlighted that these concerns have been raised before by other short-sellers and emphasized its commitment to sticking to its turnaround plan.

But the market wasn’t reassured—shares slipped nearly 2% on Thursday, a rare dip for a stock that’s been on fire.

What’s Next? Hindenburg’s accusations come as Carvana tries to shake its troubled reputation and recover from a tumultuous few years. While the company claims the allegations are recycled noise, the report could reignite concerns about its business model—and put pressure on regulators to take a closer look.

For now, the auto vending machine pioneer is stuck in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

  • 💥 Tesla Cybertruck Explosion: A rented Tesla Cybertruck exploded outside Donald Trump’s Las Vegas hotel, killing the occupant and injuring several bystanders. Investigators are treating the incident as a possible terror attack, exploring links to the New Orleans tragedy. Tesla stated the explosion was unrelated to the vehicle itself.

  • ✈️ December 2024 Marks Deadliest Month in Commercial Aviation Since 2018: December 2024 witnessed at least seven fatal plane crashes among commercial airlines, resulting in hundreds of deaths. Notably, a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 crashed in South Korea, killing 179 people. This surge in accidents has raised concerns about aviation safety and highlighted the need for improved emergency response measures.

  • 🚨 New Orleans Terror Attack: A driver killed 15 people and injured over 30 others after ramming a pickup truck into a New Year’s crowd on Bourbon Street. Authorities identified the suspect as a US Army veteran linked to the Islamic State. The Sugar Bowl in New Orleans was postponed as the FBI investigates the attack as an act of terrorism.

  • 🌍 Ukraine Halts Russian Gas: Ukraine ended Russian gas transit to Europe after refusing to renew a decades-old pipeline deal, citing its role in funding the war. Europe, once heavily reliant on Russian energy, has significantly reduced imports since the conflict began, with Russian gas now accounting for just 10% of EU consumption.

  • 🎉 Generation Beta is Born: The first babies of 2025 mark the start of Generation Beta, expected to grow up in a world defined by AI, automation, and rapid technological advances. These children, mostly born to Gen Z and younger millennials, may witness historic events like human landings on Mars as routine milestones.

  • 💰 Madoff Victims Nearly Repaid: The final round of payments to Bernie Madoff’s victims brought recovery to 94% of total losses, a historic milestone in compensation efforts. Over $4.3 billion has been repaid, largely sourced from settlements with investors and financial institutions.

  • 💰 World's 500 Richest People Gain $1.5 Trillion in 2024: The world's 500 wealthiest individuals saw their combined net worth reach a record $10 trillion in 2024, according to Bloomberg. This increase was largely driven by buoyant tech stocks, with notable gains among tech titans like Elon Musk, whose fortune reached $442.1 billion, an increase of $213 billion since the beginning of the year.

  • 📖 Popeye Joins the Public Domain: The iconic spinach-loving sailor became free for creative use as works from 1929 entered the public domain. Past examples like "Wicked" and modern retellings of classics showcase the potential, though macabre adaptations like horror-themed Winnie the Pooh films hint at diverse interpretations.

  • 🗽 New State Laws Effective January 1, 2025: Several new state laws took effect on January 1, 2025, across the United States. These include regulations on artificial intelligence, abortion, gun control, minimum wages, and marijuana use. For instance, California implemented rules requiring parental consent for minors on social media and set minimum earnings for child influencers. Minnesota and Delaware tightened gun laws, while Kentucky progressed with medical marijuana legalization. Additionally, states like Washington, California, and Connecticut raised minimum wages, with some exceeding $16 an hour.

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