💸 The Trillion Dollar Fake Rally

Good afternoon! If your mom’s been racking up orders on Temu like it’s a competitive sport, her cart might soon get lighter. The Biden-era de minimis rule that let goods under $800 zip into the US without tariffs is officially ending—for China and Hong Kong at least. Starting May 2, those bargain-bin packages will face either a 30% duty or a $25-per-item fee, which jumps to $50 in June.

President Trump initially tried to axe the loophole in February, but a border backlog forced a brief pause. Now that customs has a better handle on the paperwork, the order is back on. While Chinese goods will get more expensive and slower to arrive, US retailers like Amazon could scoop up the demand—though they’re not exactly celebrating either. Thanks to last week’s broader tariff rollout, they’re about to pay a lot more for imports too.

MARKETS

• The Dow fell for a third straight day as traders braced for even tougher talk from President Trump, who threatened to hike tariffs further on China. The session was anything but boring—markets logged their biggest intraday point swing ever and trading volume soared to an 18-year high as nearly 29 billion shares changed hands.

• While the Dow lost 349 points and the S&P dipped 0.2%, the Nasdaq managed to squeak out a 0.1% gain—its sharpest rebound from an intraday low since 2008. Investors are now trying to game out whether Trump’s trade war ends in quick deals or a long, painful economic remodel.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

• Mesa Air Group surged 54.91% after announcing a merger with Republic Airways in an all-stock deal. ($MESA)

• U.S. Steel jumped 16.22% after President Trump ordered a national security review of its pending takeover by Nippon Steel. ($X)

• RH rebounded 12.92% following last week’s brutal selloff after earnings and guidance disappointed. ($RH)

• Dollar Tree climbed 7.83% after Citi upgraded the stock, saying it has more flexibility to raise prices in a tariff-driven market. ($DLTR)

What’s down 📉

• Apple continued its three-day slide, falling 3.67% as tariff fears weighed on the China-exposed tech giant. ($AAPL)
  Chinese ADRs slumped on rising tariff tensions: Alibaba dropped 9.06%, JD. com fell 5.13%, Bilibili lost 5.62%, and PDD slipped 6%. ($BABA, $JD, $BILI, $PDD)

• Machinery stocks sank after UBS downgraded key names, citing trade war risk: Terex fell 4.51%, Paccar slid 3.01%, and Caterpillar dropped 2.78%. ($TEX, $PCAR, $CAT)

• Automakers remained under pressure amid tariff uncertainty and downgrades: Stellantis fell 4.73%, Ford dropped 3.55%, and General Motors slid 1.47%. ($STLA, $F, $GM)

• Apparel stocks took a hit after a sector-wide downgrade: Columbia Sportswear fell 4.78%, PVH Corp. dropped 2.57%, and Ralph Lauren lost 2.33%. ($COLM, $PVH, $RL)

• Restaurant stocks slid on economic slowdown fears: Noodles & Co. sank 9.82%, Dine Brands Global fell 5.97%, and Starbucks dipped 2.56%. ($NDLS, $DIN, $SBUX)

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VOLATILITY
$4 Trillion Vanishes Over a Rumor

It started with a whisper—and $4 trillion vanished.

On Monday morning, a rogue headline spread like wildfire: Trump might pause tariffs for 90 days on every country except China. The markets, starved for good news, didn’t wait for confirmation. Stocks soared. Trillions in market value came rushing back. Then reality hit. The White House called it “fake news,” and just like that, the sugar high wore off.

A game of Wall Street telephone

So where did it all start? Fox News asked Trump’s top economic advisor, Kevin Hassett, whether a pause was possible. His answer? “The president is going to decide what the president is going to decide.” Somehow, that morphed—through a tangle of financial news aggregators and social media accounts—into a full-blown tariff pause headline.

Bloomberg terminals lit up. Traders, algorithms, and day-trading X accounts jumped on the story. Stocks ripped higher. Then, as clarity returned, they retreated. The S&P 500 ended the day slightly down, but the whiplash made one thing painfully clear: Wall Street is desperate for any sign of tariff relief.

Everyone wants off the tariff train

The fake news exposed something very real: the market can’t take much more of this tariff anxiety. Billionaire Bill Ackman warned of an “economic nuclear winter,” JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon begged for resolution, and even Elon Musk chimed in to advocate for zero tariffs between Europe and US. Meanwhile, institutional investors are fleeing equities, while retail traders continue buying the dip like it’s a lifestyle.

The stakes are sky-high. The S&P 500 is teetering on bear-market territory. Several big banks—including UBS, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley—cut their year-end targets this week. The economy feels increasingly binary: tariffs stay, and we contract; tariffs go, and we rally. Monday’s botched rumor was worth $4 trillion because it hinted at a future without trade war chaos.

The Fed's not the authority anymore: What’s changed? In past cycles, the Federal Reserve could calm markets with a pivot or a rate cut. Now, investors are glued to Trump’s next press conference instead of Powell’s. Investors are trading in a world where man-made volatility trumps macro logic.

NEWS
Market Movements

• 📉 Wall Street Economists Warn of Recession If Full Tariffs Take Effect: Trump’s aggressive tariff rollout has economists raising red flags, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs highlighting heightened recession risk if full April 9 duties are enacted. Goldman cut its 2024–25 GDP forecast to just 0.5% and raised its recession odds to 45%, noting that tariffs, inflation, and policy uncertainty are weighing heavily on consumer spending and investment. JPMorgan and UBS echoed the caution, forecasting potential contractions and higher unemployment.

• 🚗 GM Reveals Electric Corvette Concept as It Reenters European Market: General Motors unveiled a sleek, all-electric Corvette concept car during the launch of a new U.K. design studio. While not intended for production, the futuristic vehicle signals GM’s renewed commitment to Europe as it prepares for Corvette and Cadillac EV sales in the region. The move comes amid growing global trade tensions, which could complicate cross-border auto ambitions. ($GM)

• 🚗 Jaguar Land Rover Suspends April U.S. Shipments Over Auto Tariffs: The automaker is halting vehicle exports to the U.S. as it navigates the impact of Trump’s new 25% tariff on imported cars. The move follows similar reassessments by global auto brands facing new cost pressures. The U.S. accounts for nearly a quarter of Jaguar Land Rover’s global sales.

• 🧠 Meta Launches Llama 4 Models, Delays Behemoth Version Amid Tech Selloff: Meta released initial versions of its Llama 4 AI model suite but postponed the rollout of Llama 4 Behemoth, its most advanced model. The delay comes as investor anxiety grows over tech sector resilience in the face of rising tariffs. Shares dropped 2.92% as the broader selloff continued. ($META)

• 📉 Klarna and StubHub Postpone IPOs Amid Market Volatility: Swedish fintech Klarna and ticketing giant StubHub have delayed their IPOs, each targeting more than $1 billion. Both companies paused roadshows amid the market instability triggered by Trump’s tariff policies. The delay reflects growing caution in capital markets. ($KLAR, $STUB)

• 📉 Apple Loses $640B in Market Cap Amid Tariff Fallout: Apple’s stock has dropped 19% over the last three sessions, erasing $638 billion in market cap as fears mount over its exposure to Trump’s sweeping tariffs. Despite diversifying some production to India and Vietnam, analysts say Apple remains deeply tied to China, which is facing 54% tariffs. The company may be forced to raise iPhone prices by up to $350 or risk a double-digit earnings hit. ($AAPL)

• ⛽ Shell Cuts Gas Output and LNG Targets on Maintenance Issues: Shell reduced its Q1 gas production guidance to 910,000–950,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day. The company also lowered its LNG (liquified natural gas) output expectations due to unexpected facility maintenance. The revision adds pressure to energy markets already shaken by geopolitical risk. ($SHEL)

• 🔐 Apple Appeals U.K. Order to Create Encryption Backdoor: Apple is challenging a British mandate that would force it to weaken encryption on its iCloud services. The tech giant says the move would endanger user privacy worldwide and set a dangerous legal precedent. The case is now public following a tribunal decision. ($AAPL)

SELL-OFF
What Can Stop the Bleeding?

The S&P 500 has shed $9 trillion in value, momentum stocks are in free fall, and Trump’s tariff regime has Wall Street scrambling. Everyone’s wondering: What could actually turn this around?

Here are six possible turn around scenarios—and how likely they are to work.

• Trump Backs Down: Some still believe Trump’s trade blitz is a bluff—that he’ll walk it back if markets crater. But his own posts say otherwise. He’s called the crash intentional “medicine” and shared videos bragging about it. Advisors say the tariffs aren’t a negotiating tactic; they are the plan. Unless the pain spreads to swing states, don’t expect a pivot.
  

• The Fed Steps In: Markets are now pricing in over 100bps of cuts by next year, up from just 40bps pre-tariffs. But Powell isn’t rushing. His Friday comments made clear: the Fed will wait for proof of labor market damage before acting. The “Fed Put” still exists—it just has a lower strike price and a delayed expiration.
  

• Congress Intervenes: A bipartisan bill would nullify new tariffs after 60 days without congressional approval. There's also talk of offsetting the pain with fiscal stimulus—tax cuts or direct relief. But GOP leadership remains aligned with Trump for now, downplaying the market drop as part of the “rocky road” to fixing trade.
  

• Stocks Get Cheap Enough: Historically, deep selloffs create buying opportunities. But U.S. equities were pricey heading into this—meaning more room to fall before they look like a bargain. A 5% cut to earnings and a reversion to average P/Es could drag the S&P below 4,500.
  

• The Courts Get Involved: Legal challenges could come, but they’re slow. Past cases took years, and today’s laws give Trump broader authority. Still, lawsuits might embarrass the administration enough to build political pressure—especially if they reveal arbitrary tariff decisions.
  

• Corporate America Speaks Up: CEOs have largely stayed quiet. But according to WSJ sources, they’ll start pushing back publicly if stocks fall 20–30%. We’re nearly there. Whether boardroom outrage can reverse policy is unclear—but silence hasn’t worked so far.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Tomorrow

Time to hear from Main Street. After a week of market mayhem sparked by tariffs, Tuesday brings the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index—a check-in with the smaller players that make up over 43% of U.S. GDP. The survey should offer insight into how these businesses are bracing for rising costs and supply headaches as the trade war heats up.

Meanwhile, a few early birds are stepping up to the earnings plate. Walgreens Boots Alliance ($WBA), WD-40 ($WDFC), and Cal-Maine Foods ($CALM) will give investors a look at how everything from pharma to pantry staples is faring under pressure.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

• 🎮 ‘Minecraft’ Movie Breaks Records With $157M Opening Weekend: Despite lukewarm reviews, the Jack Black and Jason Momoa-led film smashed expectations, doubling box office projections. It now holds the record for the biggest debut of any video game adaptation and any movie released in 2025. The success comes amid an 11% year-over-year slump in North American movie revenues.

• 📞 Over 50 Countries Reach Out to White House Amid Trade Turmoil: White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett revealed that dozens of countries have requested trade talks since the tariff plan was announced. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will be the first world leader to meet Trump in person since the rollout. Despite preemptively dropping its own tariffs, Israel was still hit with a 17% U.S. import tax.

• 🎟️ Mega Millions Ticket Prices Jump as Jackpots Get Bigger: The multistate lottery raised ticket prices from $2 to $5 starting this week, while increasing prize payouts across tiers. The odds of winning the jackpot also improved slightly, from 1 in 302.6 million to 1 in 290 million. Lottery organizers hope the changes will revive interest after a lull in participation

• 🧑‍⚖️ Trump Officials Downplay Recession Fears Despite Market Plunge: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there’s no reason to “price in a recession,” even as stocks tumble and oil collapses. Other advisors echoed his tone across Sunday talk shows, calling the sell-off a “minor blip.” Economists remain skeptical as indicators continue to flash warnings.

• 🏛️ Senate Passes Budget Blueprint With Tax Cut Extension and $5T Debt Ceiling: The GOP-led Senate pushed through a resolution to make Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent and raise the debt ceiling. The plan includes funding for national security and border initiatives. House Republicans may stall the resolution over disagreements on spending levels, setting up another fiscal clash.

• 🏌️ The Masters Stays Classic With $1.50 Sandwiches and $6 Beer: Augusta National’s concession prices remain famously low despite inflation, with sandwiches holding at $1.50 and beer at $6. A new savory tomato pie joins the menu this year. On the course, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are favorites to take the green jacket.

• 🎭 Kevin Bacon Reflects on Losses From Madoff Scheme: The actor spoke about the financial impact he and his wife suffered in the Bernie Madoff Ponzi scandal. Bacon emphasized gratitude and resilience, saying they’ve moved on and are focused on what they still have. His story highlights the personal toll of financial fraud.

• 📉 Global Billionaires Lose $536B in 48 Hours Amid Market Crash: The Bloomberg Billionaires Index recorded its largest-ever two-day loss after Trump’s tariffs sent stocks tumbling. Elon Musk lost $31 billion, Mark Zuckerberg dropped $27 billion, and Jeff Bezos shed $23 billion. The plunge surpassed pandemic-era market drops in 2020.

• 💉 Second Child Dies in Texas Measles Outbreak, RFK Jr. Reverses Course: A second pediatric death was reported as cases near 500, mostly among unvaccinated children. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., once known for vaccine skepticism, attended the funeral and publicly endorsed the MMR vaccine. His comments mark a significant shift in stance amid a growing public health crisis.

• 🏀 UConn Women Win 12th NCAA Title With Dominant Final Performance: UConn defeated South Carolina 82–59 to clinch its 12th national championship. Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd led the way, with freshman Sarah Strong adding a breakout performance. The win reestablishes UConn as the dominant force in women’s college basketball.

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