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šŸ«Ø Trump Tariffs Spook Markets

+ Chiliā€™s Is Eating Everyoneā€™s Lunch

January 31, 2025

Good (late) afternoon! Netflix just dropped its film roadmap for 2025, and itā€™s stacked with big names and bigger sequels. Rian Johnson is back with Knives Out 3: Wake Up Dead Man, Guillermo del Toro is tackling Frankenstein, and Noah Baumbachā€™s latest, Jay Kelly, is set to drop in the fall. But the real headliner? Squid Game returns for its third season on June 27, with Netflix banking on another record-smashing run after season two pulled in over 1.2 billion hours viewed.

The sequel train is running at full speed with The Old Guard 2, more Fear Street horror, and even Happy Gilmore 2making an appearance. On the docuseries front, Netflix is diving into everything from Eddie Murphyā€™s career to the Titan sub disaster. Whether itā€™s prestige, popcorn flicks, or true crime deep dives, the streamer is throwing everything at the screen in 2025.

MARKETS

*Stock data as of market close*

  • Stocks were holding steady on Fridayā€”until the White House threw a curveball. The administration announced that new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China would take effect on Saturday, sending markets into a late-session slump. The S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the Dow dropped 337 points, and the Nasdaq slid 0.3%.

  • Despite the rough finish, January still ended on a positive note. The Dow gained 4.7% for the month, with the S&P 500 up 2.6% and the Nasdaq climbing 1.5%. Investors are now bracing for more volatility as trade tensions ramp up and AI-driven market moves continue.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

Whatā€™s up šŸ“ˆ

  • Atlassian surged 14.92% to a 52-week high after posting strong AI-driven growth and surpassing earnings expectations. ($TEAM)

  • AST SpaceMobile rallied 11.15% after receiving FCC clearance to test its satellite-based cellular broadband service. ($ASTS)

  • Eastman Chemical gained 7.53% after exceeding Q4 estimates and issuing a strong full-year earnings outlook. ($EMN)

  • Vertex Pharmaceuticals popped 5.31% following FDA approval of Journavx, the first new non-opioid painkiller in decades. ($VRTX)

  • AbbVie climbed 4.70% after beating Q4 expectations and reaffirming long-term revenue growth through 2029. ($ABBV)

Whatā€™s down šŸ“‰

  • Deckers Outdoor plummeted 20.51% despite beating Q3 expectations, as analysts raised concerns about future demand. ($DECK)

  • Beazer Homes tumbled 20.00% after posting Q1 earnings below consensus expectations, despite revenue exceeding estimates. ($BZH)

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance plunged 10.30% after announcing it will suspend its quarterly dividend as part of a turnaround effort. ($WBA)

  • Chevron fell 4.56% after missing Q4 earnings expectations due to its refining business posting its first loss in four years. ($CVX)

  • Colgate-Palmolive slid 4.60% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue and issuing a cautious 2025 sales outlook. ($CL)

  • Nvidia dropped another 3.67%, closing out a brutal week down roughly 14% following DeepSeek-related sell-offs. ($NVDA)

TRADE
Trump Vows Tariffs On Mexico, Canada, And China to Hit Saturday With More in Coming Months

Tariffs Incoming, No Escape Hatch

Trumpā€™s tariff hammer is about to drop, and itā€™s hitting just about everything: oil, chips, steel, drugsā€”you name it. Starting Saturday, the U.S. will slap 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and a 10% levy on China, all under the guise of combating illegal fentanyl and securing supply chains. And this is just the opening salvoā€”Trump promised even more tariffs on European goods and additional hits to key commodities by mid-February. Wall Street took notice, with markets dipping as investors braced for ripple effects.

Trade Wars 2.0, Now with More Collateral

The biggest target? The auto industry. Modern car manufacturing is a three-country relay race, with vehicles crossing North American borders multiple times before hitting dealerships. Tariffs could send production costs skyrocketing and dent an already shaky sector. Meanwhile, the energy market is on edgeā€”80% of Canadaā€™s oil exports go straight to the U.S., and with refiners relying heavily on Canadian crude, any tariff-induced price spike could mean higher gas prices just as inflation was cooling off.

Retaliation is Already in the Works

Canada and Mexico arenā€™t taking this lying down. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau vowed a ā€œforceful but reasonableā€ response, and Mexico hinted at countermeasures that could hit U.S. automakers, agriculture, and consumer goods. A 25% duty on Mexican imports could have a multibillion-dollar impact on U.S. households, raising prices on essentials like fresh produce, meat, and electronics. Meanwhile, the EU is quietly preparing its own counterpunch, with analysts predicting a drawn-out trade fight.

A Political and Economic Gamble

While economists warn that these tariffs could reignite inflation and disrupt supply chains, Trump isnā€™t fazed. Heā€™s selling tariffs as a nationalist win, claiming theyā€™ll ā€œmake us very rich and very strong.ā€ The real test? Whether businesses and consumers are willing to absorb the fallout. With inflation fears still lurking and global trade partners gearing up for battle, Trumpā€™s tariff strategy could be a high-stakes gamble that reshapes markets for months to come.

NEWS
Market Movements

RESTAURANTS
Chiliā€™s Is Eating Everyoneā€™s Lunch


Chiliā€™s just delivered one of the most jaw-dropping turnarounds in the restaurant industry. Brinker Internationalā€™s flagship chain posted a record 31% jump in same-store sales last quarter, fueled by a 20% surge in foot trafficā€”a number so wild it made Wall Street do a double take. The stock soared 16% to an all-time high of $180, as the company flexed its ability to attract value-conscious diners while leaving competitors like Darden and Bloominā€™ Brands in the dust.

Marketing That Actually Works

Turns out, bombarding social media with Triple Dipper ads and a relentless push for its $10.99 ā€œ3 for Meā€ deal pays off. Chiliā€™s doubled sales of the Triple Dipper, which now accounts for 14% of total revenue, up from 7% a year ago. CEO Kevin Hochman says competitors can try to undercut prices, but they canā€™t replicate the experienceā€”especially after Chiliā€™s revamped its menu and operations to ensure that every meal delivers.

Less Is More in the Kitchen

Chiliā€™s didnā€™t just throw money at ads; it cleaned up its entire back-of-house. The chain cut 13 menu items and 12 pantry SKUs, making way for quality upgrades like fresh-made guac, better chicken, and crispier wings. Meanwhile, a new kitchen display system and TurboChef ovens have made cooking more efficient, allowing staff to handle the flood of new customers without missing a beat. Even Itā€™s Just Wings, Chiliā€™s virtual brand, got streamlinedā€”ditching its dedicated kitchen station to free up space for high-growth menu items.

Whatā€™s Next? More Growth, More Margs

With demand booming, Brinker raised its full-year revenue outlook for the second time in three months, now forecasting $5.15B-$5.25B in sales. Hochman is already planning 200 Chiliā€™s remodels to make locations even more inviting. And for those worried about inflation? The $6 margarita is here to stay. As far as turnarounds go, this one isnā€™t just workingā€”itā€™s a masterclass in how to win over price-conscious diners while keeping margins intact.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Next Week

Wall Streetā€™s got a full plate of economic data next week, kicking off with January manufacturing PMI on Monday. Job openings and factory orders follow on Tuesday, while Wednesday brings services PMI and ADPā€™s private payroll report. Thursday delivers the latest jobless claims, but the real headliner is Fridayā€™s monthly jobs reportā€”the one that actually moves markets.

Earnings season may be past its peak, but the reports keep rolling in. Investors still have plenty of numbers to sift through, with a few key names left to take center stage.

Earnings:

  • Monday: Palantir ($PLTR), Tyson Foods ($TSN), NXP Semiconductors ($NXPI), Clorox ($CLX)

  • Tuesday: Alphabet ($GOOGL), Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD), Pfizer ($PFE), PayPal ($PYPL), Spotify ($SPOT), PepsiCo ($PEP), Chipotle ($CMG), Merck ($MRK), UBS ($UBS), Snap ($SNAP), Electronic Arts ($EA), Amgen ($AMGN), Mondelez International ($MDLZ), Mattel ($MAT), Estee Lauder ($EL), Cummins ($CMI), Ferrari ($RACE)

  • Wednesday: Disney ($DIS), Uber ($UBER), Arm Holdings ($ARM), Novo Nordisk ($NVO), MicroStrategy ($MSTR), Qualcomm ($QCOM), GSK ($GSK), Ford ($F), Toyota ($TM), Boston Scientific ($BSX), Allstate ($ALL), The New York Times ($NYT), Harley Davidson ($HOG)

  • Thursday: Amazon ($AMZN), Eli Lilly ($LLY), Bristol-Myers Squibb ($BMY), AstraZeneca PLC ($AZN), Kellanova ($K), Yum Brands ($YUM), Cloudflare ($NET), Roblox ($RBLX), Under Armour ($UA), Pinterest ($PINS), Affirm ($AFRM), Honeywell ($HON), Peloton ($PTON), The Hershey Company ($HSY), Take-Two Interactive Software ($TTWO), Skechers ($SKX)

  • Friday: CBOE Global Markets ($CBOE), Fortive ($FTV), Flowers Foods ($FLO)

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

  • āœˆļø First Deadly U.S. Plane Crash in Nearly 24 Years Kills 67: An American Airlines flight carrying 64 people collided with a Black Hawk military helicopter over the Potomac River near Washington, D.C., late Wednesday. Authorities confirmed there were no survivors, making it the first fatal U.S. commercial plane crash in nearly 24 years. Investigations are underway amid concerns about air traffic control staffing shortages.

  • ā˜„ļø Asteroid Has a 1.3% Chance of Hitting Earth in 2032: Scientists have given asteroid 2024 YR4 a 3 out of 10 rating on the Torino Scale, marking the second-highest rating ever assigned to an asteroid. While the chances of impact remain low, NASA may use its DART mission to deflect it if necessary.

  • šŸ‘„ Senate Grills Three of Trumpā€™s Cabinet Nominees: Tulsi Gabbard (director of national intelligence), Kash Patel (FBI director), and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (health secretary) faced tough Senate confirmation hearings. Gabbard was questioned about her past support for Edward Snowden, Patel distanced himself from conspiracy theories, and Kennedy refused to acknowledge that vaccines do not cause autism.

  • šŸ“‰ Appleā€™s Earnings Beat Estimates, but iPhone Sales Fall Short: Apple reported $124.3 billion in revenue for the first fiscal quarter, surpassing expectations, but iPhone sales came in at $69 billion, missing the $71 billion forecast. The company attributed an 11% drop in China sales to production issues but saw stronger sales in markets where its AI features are available.

  • šŸ¤– SoftBank in Talks to Invest Up to $25 Billion in OpenAI: SoftBank is reportedly negotiating a $15 billion to $25 billion investment in OpenAI, further deepening its collaboration with the AI company. The investment could support major AI infrastructure projects.

  • šŸš€ NASA Astronauts Conduct Spacewalk After Longest Delayed Return from ISS: Astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, who have been stranded on the International Space Station since June 2024 due to return vehicle delays, completed a 5.5-hour spacewalk to remove degraded hardware. Williams set a new record for the most time spent on spacewalks by a woman.

  • šŸŒŽ U.S. Economy Grows 2.3% While Eurozone Reports 0% Growth: The U.S. economy outpaced its European counterparts in the last quarter of 2024, driven by strong consumer spending. Meanwhile, the Eurozone saw stagnation, with Germanyā€™s manufacturing crisis contributing to the regionā€™s economic slowdown.

RESOURCES
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