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  • ⌚️ TikTok’s Time Is Ticking

⌚️ TikTok’s Time Is Ticking

+ Airbnb’s $5M Bet on NYC

January 17, 2025

Good afternoon! Nintendo unveiled its long-anticipated Switch 2, and while it sports upgrades like a bigger screen and magnetic controllers, it’s sticking to the playbook that made the original a hit. Gamers can expect hands-on demos this spring, with teasers of a new “Mario Kart” revving excitement. The console’s design doesn’t stray far from its predecessor, proving that Nintendo knows when to hold ’em.

Despite slowing sales of the original Switch and five consecutive quarters of declining profits, Nintendo’s aiming high. The company has prepped its supply chain to ship 20 million units of the Switch 2 in its first year—five million more than the OG console managed at launch. Sometimes, the safe bet is the winning one.

MARKETS

*Stock data as of market close*

  • Stocks ended the week on a strong note, with all three major indexes posting their best weekly gains since early November. The Dow rose 0.8%, the S&P 500 climbed 1%, and the Nasdaq jumped 1.5%, driven by a tech rally led by Nvidia and Tesla. Positive inflation data and solid growth projections gave investors a reason to stay optimistic heading into the Trump administration.

  • For the week, the Dow gained 3.7%, the S&P 500 rose 2.9%, and the Nasdaq advanced 2.5%. Big banks impressed with strong earnings, and headlines suggesting progress in U.S.-China trade talks added to the upbeat mood as the markets powered through the week.

STOCKS
Winners & Losers

What’s up 📈

  • Qorvo surged 14.43% after activist investor Starboard Value disclosed a 7.7% stake in the company, aiming to boost its share price. ($QRVO)

  • Intel popped 9.25% on speculation that the chipmaker could be a takeover target following its CEO’s December departure. ($INTC)

  • Crypto stocks rallied as Donald Trump is expected to prioritize crypto. MicroStrategy gained 8.04%, Mara Holdings climbed 8.80%, and trading platforms Coinbase and Robinhood rose 4.92% and 4.49%, respectively. ($MSTR, $MARA, $COIN, $HOOD)

  • SLB (formerly Schlumberger) added 6.06% after reporting strong earnings, hiking its dividend, and announcing a new stock buyback program. ($SLB)

  • Life360 advanced 6.9% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy, highlighting confidence in midterm ad revenue growth. ($LIF)

What’s down 📉

  • JB Hunt Transport Services dropped 7.38% after missing fourth-quarter earnings expectations, reporting $1.53 EPS versus the $1.61 expected. ($JBHT)

  • Novo Nordisk fell 5.27% after its diabetes and weight-loss drugs were listed for Medicare price negotiations. ($NVO)

  • Snap slipped 3.21% as the Supreme Court upheld a TikTok ban, sparking concerns about competition dynamics. ($SNAP)

  • Vistra lost 1.8% after a fire at its Northern California battery storage facility led to evacuations. ($VST)

SOCIAL MEDIA
TikTok’s Fate Rests on Trump After Supreme Court Upholds Law

The Supreme Court has spoken: TikTok’s U.S. operations are officially on the chopping block unless ByteDance divests ownership by Sunday. The verdict sends shockwaves through the digital sphere, with TikTok's 170 million American users now scrambling for alternatives—and rival platforms like Instagram, YouTube, and Snapchat hoping to cash in.

But wait, it’s complicated. Incoming President Trump, a known TikTok fan (go figure), might throw a lifeline. Rumors swirl of an executive order delaying the ban, while ByteDance plays hardball, showing no interest in selling the platform.

Winners, Losers, and... RedNote?

Winners: Meta and Google, potentially. Instagram and YouTube could see user numbers surge, but there’s no guarantee TikTok creators will flock to their turf. Instead, Chinese app RedNote has been stealing the spotlight, topping the App Store as frustrated TikTokers seek refuge.

Losers: ByteDance, which faces a $40-$50 billion price tag to offload TikTok. Also in the hot seat: Apple and Google, tasked with enforcing the ban on their app stores unless Trump changes the playbook.

What’s Next?

If TikTok pulls the plug, users could face a complete shutdown or buggy app chaos as updates cease. Trump’s administration might offer a 90-day extension for ByteDance to strike a deal, with whispers of Elon Musk or U.S. investors as potential buyers. Meanwhile, creators are hedging their bets, directing followers to rival platforms.

As the saga unfolds, one thing’s clear: the battle over TikTok is far from just about viral dances—it’s a high-stakes chess game of geopolitics, national security, and big tech dominance.

NEWS
Market Movements

  • 💸 Vanguard Settles SEC Charges: Vanguard agreed to pay $106.4 million to settle charges of misleading statements about target-date funds, which resulted in substantial tax bills for investors. The settlement includes a separate $40 million resolution of a class-action lawsuit. ($VOO)

  • 🏦 Goldman Sachs Retains Top Execs: Goldman Sachs awarded CEO David Solomon and President John Waldron $80 million each in restricted stock units to retain leadership stability. This move follows a 26% increase in Solomon’s pay, reflecting robust financial performance. ($GS)

  • ⚖️ Walgreens Faces DOJ Lawsuit: The DOJ sued Walgreens, accusing the pharmacy chain of filling millions of prescriptions without legitimate medical purposes. If found liable, Walgreens could face significant civil penalties, reaching up to $80,850 per prescription. ($WBA)

  • ⛏️ Rio Tinto and Glencore Discuss Merger: In a potential game-changer for the mining industry, Rio Tinto and Glencore are in early talks about a merger that would create the world's largest mining company, surpassing BHP in market value. Both companies have declined to comment, and the outcome of the discussions remains uncertain. ($RIO) ($GLNCY)

  • 🚀 SpaceX Faces Setback: SpaceX's latest Starship test flight ended in failure as the rocket was destroyed due to fuel leaks causing pressure build-up. Despite the incident, the company plans improvements, including fire suppression measures, for future launches. ($SPACEX)

  • 💰 Truist Exceeds Expectations: Truist Financial surpassed fourth-quarter profit expectations, reporting adjusted net income of $1.21 billion, driven by a 58.8% year-over-year rise in investment banking and trading income. Net interest income also rose nearly 2% to $3.64 billion. ($TFC)

  • 🌏 KKR Sells Maya Stake: KKR has hired Goldman Sachs to manage the sale of its 20%+ stake in Philippine fintech Maya, potentially valuing the company at over $2 billion. Maya's robust financial metrics in 2024 underscore its growth in digital banking services. ($KKR)

  • ✈️ Boeing Resumes 777X Flights: Boeing's 777X jet resumed test flights after resolving a critical engine mounting issue. The widebody jet's first delivery to Qatar Airways has been pushed to 2026, with major customers like Emirates and Lufthansa awaiting the aircraft. ($BA)

  • 🔋 EV Sales Surge in 2024: Battery-powered vehicles accounted for 20% of U.S. new car sales in 2024, up from 4% in 2019. MHEVs led the charge, as the automotive industry continues its electrification push driven by lower battery costs and fuel savings. ($TSLA)

HOUSING
Airbnb’s ramping up lobbying to reverse NYC’s restrictions on short-term rentals

Airbnb is doubling down on its fight against New York City’s strict short-term rental rules, dropping $5 million to back pro-home-sharing politicians. The 2023 rules—requiring hosts to live onsite during rentals and limiting guests to two—slashed 80% of Airbnb’s NYC listings, dealing a hefty blow to its bottom line.

Lobbying Wars

The short-term rental giant isn’t new to political spending, but its recent lobbying spree in New York has already outpaced the previous five years combined. Airbnb is funding advocacy groups like RHOAR (Restore Homeowner Autonomy and Rights), while critics accuse it of creating "astroturf" movements disguised as grassroots campaigns.

The company’s wishlist? A law allowing single- and two-family homeowners to rent out properties without being onsite, upping the guest limit to four, and letting hosts lock doors inside rentals.

Hotels Are Winning—for Now

Since the crackdown, average NYC hotel rates have hit $417/night—a record high. Meanwhile, Airbnb argues the restrictions aren’t solving the housing crisis, pointing to rising rents and fewer affordable travel options.

Airbnb isn’t just battling NYC; it’s fighting similar rental crackdowns worldwide, including Barcelona’s planned 2029 short-term rental ban. As regulations tighten, the company is ramping up its political game, framing its efforts as empowering homeowners and supporting local economies.

What’s Next? While NYC accounts for just 1% of Airbnb’s revenue, the symbolic win could influence how other cities regulate short-term rentals. The company’s message is clear: It’s willing to pay to play—and to keep the Big Apple’s home-sharing market alive.

Calendar
On The Horizon

Next Week

Markets are taking a breather on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, which also marks Donald Trump’s second inauguration. The week starts slow with no economic reports until Wednesday, when we get leading economic indicators. Thursday brings the usual initial jobless claims, and Friday wraps things up with existing home sales and flash PMIs for services and manufacturing.

Earnings season is shifting into high gear, so here’s what’s on tap each day:

Earnings:

  • Tuesday: Netflix ($NFLX), 3M ($MMM), Charles Schwab ($SCHW), Interactive Brokers ($IBKR), D.R. Horton ($DHI), Capital One ($COF), United Airlines ($UAL).

  • Wednesday: Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ), Procter & Gamble ($PG), Discover Financial Services ($DFS), Abbott Laboratories ($ABT), Halliburton ($HAL), The Travelers Companies ($TRV), Kinder Morgan ($KMI), Alcoa ($AA).

  • Thursday: American Airlines ($AAL), Alaska Air Group ($ALK), Intuitive Surgical ($ISRG), Elevance Health ($ELV), Union Pacific ($UNP), CSX ($CSX).

  • Friday: Verizon ($VZ), American Express ($AXP), NextEra Energy ($NEE).

    Rest up this long weekend—next week’s going to keep the markets busy.

NEWS
The Daily Rundown

  • 🚀 Blue Origin's New Glenn Launches, Starship Fails: Blue Origin’s New Glenn completed its first orbital mission, a pivotal milestone in private space exploration, carrying a prototype satellite into orbit. In contrast, SpaceX’s Starship test ended with a mid-flight explosion due to suspected fuel issues, scattering debris over the Caribbean. SpaceX is under FAA investigation and plans to implement additional safety measures for future launches, underscoring the challenges in the commercial space race.

  • 📈 Mandarin Learning Surges Amid TikTok Ban: Duolingo reported a 216% increase in U.S. Mandarin learners as TikTok fans flock to RedNote, a Chinese app navigable only in Mandarin, ahead of the platform’s ban. RedNote gained 700,000 new users in two days, signaling a significant cultural shift. The surge highlights a broader interest in Chinese language skills amid geopolitical tensions.

  • 🛡 Israel Approves Gaza Ceasefire Deal: Israel and Hamas agreed to a Qatar-mediated truce aimed at ending months of conflict and hostage crises. The deal's first phase includes releasing 33 Israeli hostages and 95 Palestinian prisoners, with humanitarian aid set to flow into Gaza. However, skepticism remains over the long-term durability of the agreement, with future phases contingent on Hamas's actions.

  • ⚕️ Cancer Rates Rise in Women Under 50: Cancer diagnoses in U.S. women under 50 have surged, with rates now 82% higher than in men. The increase is driven by breast and thyroid cancers, prompting calls for more accessible screening programs. Medical experts emphasize the importance of early detection and targeted health campaigns to mitigate these trends.

  • 🚦 NYC's Congestion Pricing Cuts Traffic: New York’s congestion pricing has reduced traffic in Manhattan’s business district by 7.5% while improving travel speeds by up to 40% in surrounding areas. However, parking garages and restaurants inside the zone report sharp declines in business. Governor Kathy Hochul has pledged to monitor the policy's economic impacts as it continues.

  • 💰 Treasury Nominee Champions Tariffs and Tax Cuts: Trump’s Treasury nominee Scott Bessent proposed tariffs as a revenue booster and urged the extension of 2017 tax cuts during his Senate hearing. Bessent also advocated for stricter sanctions on Russian oil, framing the policies as central to U.S. economic strategy. His remarks signal potential shifts in fiscal policy under the incoming administration.

  • 🚬 FDA Greenlights Zyn Nicotine Pouches: Zyn nicotine pouches received FDA approval, marking the first regulatory nod for this product category. The pouches pose lower cancer risks than cigarettes but remain controversial among health experts. Zyn’s parent company, Philip Morris, anticipates a sales boost as pouches gain market share in the tobacco industry.

  • ⚾ Iconic Broadcaster Bob Uecker Dies at 90: Legendary Milwaukee Brewers announcer Bob Uecker passed away after battling lung cancer. Known for his humor and charm, Uecker also starred in Major League and became a cultural icon through Miller Lite commercials. His loss marks the end of an era in baseball broadcasting.

  • 🎥 Lawsuit Rocks Hollywood: Justin Baldoni’s $400 million defamation lawsuit against Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds alleges misconduct during the production of It Ends With Us. Baldoni accuses the pair of extortion and manipulating the film’s creative process. The lawsuit has intensified scrutiny on power dynamics in Hollywood collaborations.

RESOURCES
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